The Impact of Sentiment on Stock Price Movements: A WallStreetBets Casestudie
Translated title
Indvirkningen af Markedssentiment på Aktiepriser: Et WallStreetBets Casestudie
Author
Christensen, Oliver
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2024
Abstract
This thesis examines whether sentiment from Reddit’s WallStreetBets can help explain and predict stock price movements. Using natural language processing, the study builds a sentiment pipeline that cleans, tokenizes, and encodes posts (including n-grams and feature extraction), then aligns sentiment indicators with historical price data. A range of supervised learning models—such as linear classifiers, tree-based ensembles, and neural networks—are trained to predict price movements, and predictability is assessed using cross-correlation and Granger causality. The work also covers data labeling, model selection, and an outline of a backtested trading strategy to gauge practical relevance. The results suggest that sentiment analysis provides valuable insight into market behavior and has potential utility for forecasting stock price movements.
Denne afhandling undersøger, om sentiment fra Reddit-forummet WallStreetBets kan bruges til at forklare og forudsige aktiekursbevægelser. Med udgangspunkt i naturlig sprogbehandling opbygges en sentimentpipeline, hvor indlæg renses, tokeniseres og kodes (bl.a. med n-grams og feature-ekstraktion), hvorefter sentiment kobles til historiske kursdata. Der anvendes en bred vifte af maskinlæringsmodeller, herunder lineære klassifikatorer, træbaserede ensembles og neurale netværk, og forudsigelighed vurderes bl.a. via krydskorrelation og Granger-kausalitet. Arbejdet omfatter desuden modellering og datalabeling, modeludvælgelse samt skitsering af en handelsstrategi med backtest for at vurdere praktisk anvendelighed. Resultaterne peger på, at sentimentanalyse kan give værdifuld indsigt i markedsadfærd og har potentiale til at forbedre forudsigelsen af aktiekursbevægelser.
[This apstract has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project full text]