The Feasibility of Denmark as a Potential Exporter of Hydrogen in 2045: A Socio-economic and Regulatory Framework Study
Authors
Schmidt-Ebbesen, Cajsa ; Kloster, Frida
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2024
Submitted on
2024-06-06
Pages
95
Abstract
This thesis assesses whether Denmark can be a socio‑economically viable exporter of hydrogen produced via Power‑to‑X (PtX) by 2045, and which regulatory conditions are needed to enable this pathway. Drawing on Smart Energy Systems and Choice Awareness, three scenarios based on IDA Climate Response 2045 are modelled in EnergyPLAN, operating electrolysers with a mix of fixed export (75%) and use of critical excess electricity. A socio‑economic evaluation with net present value calculations is performed, including sensitivity analyses for electricity price, hydrogen price, and offshore wind investment costs, and a GIS analysis of distances to the electricity grid and proposed hydrogen pipelines to estimate infrastructure needs. Interviews with key Danish PtX stakeholders identify barriers and potential policy actions. The results indicate that hydrogen exports are socio‑economically feasible in scenarios with total offshore wind capacity around 30.3–36.9 GW, electrolyser capacity around 14.8–19.8 GW, and fixed export volumes of about 54.3–77.85 TWh/year. A lower‑capacity scenario is not feasible under the assumed parameters unless the electricity price falls by about 10%, the hydrogen price rises by about 10%, or offshore wind investment costs fall by about 10%; across scenarios, hydrogen prices in the range of roughly 2.7–3.3 EUR/kg support feasibility. Interviews highlight electricity price and availability, tariffs, offtake and market uncertainty, infrastructure, and timeline alignment as major challenges. The thesis concludes that Denmark could export hydrogen by 2045 at the indicated capacity levels, provided clear, stable regulation, a functioning hydrogen infrastructure, and risk‑reducing framework conditions are established.
Denne afhandling undersøger, om Danmark i 2045 kan være socioøkonomisk bæredygtig som eksportør af brint produceret via Power‑to‑X (PtX), og hvilke regulatoriske rammer der skal til for at understøtte udviklingen. Med udgangspunkt i Smart Energy Systems og Choice Awareness analyseres tre scenarier i EnergyPLAN, baseret på IDA Climate Response 2045, hvor elektrolyseanlæg drives med en kombination af fast eksport (75 %) og udnyttelse af kritisk overskudsproduktion af el. Der gennemføres en socioøkonomisk evaluering med nettonutidsværdi‑beregninger, følsomhedsanalyser for elpris, brintpris og havvindinvesteringer samt en GIS‑analyse af afstande til elnet og planlagte brintrør for at anslå infrastrukturbehov. Interviews med centrale aktører i den danske PtX‑værdikæde bruges til at identificere barrierer og mulige virkemidler. Resultaterne viser, at eksport af brint er socioøkonomisk mulig i scenarier, hvor den samlede havvindskapacitet ligger omkring 30,3–36,9 GW, elektrolysekapaciteten omkring 14,8–19,8 GW, og den faste eksportmængde omkring 54,3–77,85 TWh/år. Et lavere kapacitetsscenarie er derimod ikke rentabelt med de anvendte forudsætninger, medmindre elprisen falder ca. 10 %, brintprisen stiger ca. 10 %, eller havvindinvesteringen reduceres ca. 10 %; på tværs af scenarier peger analyserne på brintpriser i størrelsesordenen 2,7–3,3 EUR/kg for at opnå samfundsøkonomisk balance. Interviewene fremhæver elpris og tilgængelighed, tariffer, offtake og markedsusikkerhed, infrastruktur samt tidsmæssig koordinering som de største udfordringer. Afhandlingen konkluderer, at Danmark kan blive brintexportør i 2045 under de angivne kapacitetsniveauer, hvis der samtidig skabes klare og forudsigelige regler, udvikles en velfungerende brintinfrastruktur og reduceres risici gennem målrettede rammevilkår.
[This apstract has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project full text]