Foundations of an empirical input-output SFC model
Authors
Nortvig, Frederik Emil ; Christensen, Magnus Risager ; Bundgaard, Mathias Spindler Juhl ; Hansen, Oliver Bruun
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-06-03
Pages
275
Abstract
Specialet adresserer begrænsninger i den nuværende makromodellering, hvor real-finansielle sammenhænge og sektorvise chok ofte overses eller behandles for aggregeret. Vi stiller spørgsmålet: Hvilke skridt er nødvendige for at lægge fundamentet for en kvartalsvis empirisk input-output stock-flow consistent (E-IO-SFC) model for Danmark, og hvilke centrale udfordringer opstår? Vores bidrag er metodisk: Vi integrerer nationalregnskaber, finansielle konti og input-output-tabeller i en kvartalsvis, regnskabskonsistent database på tværs af seks institutionelle sektorer og fem brancher, herunder en eksplicit opsplitning af de ikke-finansielle selskaber. Vi etablerer den centrale regnskabsstruktur via en transaktionsflow-matrix og en balanceskema-matrix og beskriver nødvendige datatransformationer, fordelingsnøgler og en estimeringsstrategi for centrale adfærdsligninger, så de er i overensstemmelse med regnskabsidentiteter og kan give endogent bestemte finansielle balancer med feedback til realøkonomien. Endelig drøfter vi praktiske data- og metodeudfordringer og skitserer næste skridt mod en fuldt operationel E-IO-SFC-model for Danmark. Vi præsenterer ikke modelkørsler eller politiske resultater; fokus er at etablere et detaljeret og internt konsistent grundlag for videre arbejde.
The thesis addresses limitations in current macroeconomic modeling, where real-financial linkages and sector-specific shocks are often overlooked or treated too aggregately. We ask: What steps are needed to lay the foundations for a quarterly empirical input-output stock-flow consistent (E-IO-SFC) model for Denmark, and what challenges arise in doing so? Our contribution is methodological. We integrate national accounts, financial accounts, and input-output tables into a quarterly, accounting-consistent database spanning six institutional sectors and five industries, including an explicit disaggregation of non-financial corporations. We set up the core accounting structure through a transaction flow matrix and a balance sheet matrix and describe the required data transformations, allocation keys, and an estimation strategy for key behavioral equations, aligning dynamics with accounting identities and allowing financial balances to be determined endogenously with feedback to the real economy. Finally, we discuss practical data and methodological issues and outline next steps toward a fully operational E-IO-SFC model for Denmark. We do not report model simulations or policy results; the focus is to establish a detailed, internally consistent foundation for future work.
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