Electric Car Integration in the Danish Energy System: A planning and institutional approach to technological change
Translated title
Electric Car Integration in the Danish Energy System
Author
Hjeds, Karina
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2020
Submitted on
2020-08-10
Abstract
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan forskellige andele af elbiler kan påvirke Danmarks omstilling til et energisystem uden fossile brændsler i 2050. Analysen kombinerer scenarieplanlægning med energisystemværktøjet EnergyPLAN til en teknisk vurdering af et fremtidigt smart energisystem, efterfulgt af en institutionel analyse af teknologisk forandring baseret på en model for store tekniske systemer og teori om ydre påvirkninger. Med udgangspunkt i IDAs energivision opstilles tre scenarier med underscenarier: videreført lineær vækst i elbiler (lav andel) med resten af bilparken dækket af henholdsvis fossile brændsler, biobrændstoffer eller biobrændstoffer kombineret med brint; 50% elbiler med resten biobrændstoffer eller biobrændstoffer og brint; samt 90% elbiler med resten biobrændstoffer eller brint. Resultaterne indikerer, at transportsektoren som minimum bør bestå af 50% elbiler for ikke at overskride en kritisk biomassegrænse, at flere elbiler ikke i sig selv kræver øget vindkapacitet, men at omkostningerne stiger i takt med elbilsandelen og brintforbruget. Den institutionelle analyse peger på, at ydre betingelser kan justeres for at fremme den ønskede teknologiske udvikling, og at især politisk regulering kan påvirke adfærd og gøre elbiler mere attraktive. Samlet set fremhæver specialet tekniske og institutionelle greb, der kan understøtte planlægningen af en fossilfri transport i Danmark.
This thesis examines how different shares of electric cars could affect Denmark’s transition to a fossil-free energy system by 2050. It combines scenario planning and the EnergyPLAN modelling tool for a technical assessment of a future smart energy system with an institutional analysis of technological change grounded in a model for large technical systems and theories about external drivers. Building on IDA’s energy vision, three scenarios with sub-scenarios are explored: continued linear growth in EVs (low share) with the remaining car fleet supplied by fossil fuels, biofuels, or biofuels plus hydrogen; 50% EVs with the remainder covered by biofuels or biofuels plus hydrogen; and 90% EVs with the remainder covered by biofuels or hydrogen. The results indicate that the transport sector should include at least 50% electric cars to avoid exceeding a critical biomass limit, that more EVs do not in themselves require additional wind capacity, and that overall system costs rise with higher EV shares and hydrogen use. The institutional analysis shows that external conditions can be adjusted to steer technological change, with public policy in particular able to influence behaviour and make EVs more attractive. Together, the findings highlight technical and institutional levers to support planning for a fossil-free transport sector in Denmark.
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