Which factors make a rebel group successful? A case study of three rebel groups that operated during the Syrian Civil War: HTS, ISIS and SDF
Author
Tzikas, Grigorios
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-05-27
Pages
45
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvilke faktorer der gør en oprørsgruppe succesfuld, gennem et komparativt casestudie af tre aktører i den syriske borgerkrig: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Islamisk Stat i Irak og Syrien (ISIS) og de Syriske Demokratiske Styrker (SDF). Med udgangspunkt i perioden 2011 til december 2024 sammenlignes gruppernes varierende resultater ud fra fire hovedfaktorer: evnen til at udøve styre i kontrollerede områder (målt ved ti funktioner såsom eksekutiv ledelse, råd, retfærdighed, skat, politi, humanitære indsatser, uddannelse, sundhed, medier og diplomati), adgang til rige naturressourcer (især olie), mobilisering af lokale og udenlandske rekrutter samt graden af udenlandsk støtte eller modstand. Analysen kombinerer beskrivelser af gruppernes historiske og ideologiske rødder med data om territorial kontrol, ressourcegeografi, styrkestørrelser og eksterne interventioner. Resultaterne peger på, at en velfungerende lokal regeringsførelse i kombination med udenlandsk støtte er afgørende for oprørsgruppers chancer for at vinde en borgerkrig, mens adgang til olie og evnen til at mobilisere rekrutter er mindre betydningsfulde. Afhandlingen anerkender, at flere end disse fire forhold påvirker udfaldet, men giver et samlet overblik over centrale drivkræfter bag succes og fiasko for oprørsgrupper i Syrien.
This thesis examines what makes a rebel group successful through a comparative case study of three actors in the Syrian Civil War: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Covering the period from 2011 to December 2024, it compares their divergent outcomes across four main factors: the capacity to govern territory (assessed via ten functions such as executive leadership, councils, justice, taxation, policing, humanitarian services, education, health, media, and diplomacy), access to rich natural resources (notably oil), the mobilization of local and foreign recruits, and the extent of foreign support or opposition. The analysis integrates each group’s historical and ideological background with data on territorial control, resource geography, force size estimates, and external interventions. Findings indicate that effective local governance combined with foreign backing is crucial for a rebel group to prevail in civil war, while access to oil and recruitment capacity are less decisive. The thesis acknowledges that more than these four factors shape outcomes, but offers a consolidated view of key drivers of rebel success and failure in Syria.
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