Uneven Paths to Entrepreneurial Success: A Comparative Analysis of Startup Ecosystems in Estonia and Croatia
Authors
Omerinovic, Harris ; Hettlich, Magne Bonnen
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2026
Submitted on
2026-05-29
Abstract
This thesis investigates why some small post-socialist European economies build internationally competitive startup ecosystems while others with similar structural conditions do not. Focusing on a comparative case study of Estonia and Croatia, it asks how differences in ecosystem conditions help explain their divergent development paths. The analysis applies Erik Stam’s entrepreneurial ecosystem framework and a Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) to compare framework conditions (institutions, infrastructure, markets) and systemic conditions (finance, human capital, and support and knowledge structures). Empirical evidence draws on data from Eurostat, OECD, EIB, GEM, Eurobarometer, and national ecosystem reports. The findings indicate that Estonia’s success stems from stronger coherence among institutional efficiency, digital infrastructure, venture capital markets, and founder recycling mechanisms. By contrast, Croatia has assembled many formal components—incubators, accelerators, public funding, and technical talent—but these are less integrated and less self-reinforcing. Notably, Croatia does not lack entrepreneurial ambition; GEM data show high intention and confidence, yet activity concentrates in traditional SMEs and self-employment rather than innovation-intensive scaling. The thesis concludes that productive entrepreneurship emerges most strongly where institutional, financial, and cultural conditions reinforce each other over time; ecosystem development is path-dependent and cannot be reduced to isolated policy interventions.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvorfor nogle små post-socialistiske europæiske økonomier udvikler internationalt konkurrencedygtige startup-økosystemer, mens andre med lignende strukturelle forhold ikke gør. Med udgangspunkt i en komparativ casestudie af Estland og Kroatien spørger studiet, hvordan forskelle i økosystembetingelser kan forklare de to landes forskellige udviklingsforløb. Analysen anvender Erik Stams entreprenørskabs-økosystemramme og et Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) til at sammenligne rammebetingelser (institutioner, infrastruktur, markeder) og systemiske betingelser (finansiering, human kapital, støtte- og vidensstrukturer). Empirien bygger på data fra bl.a. Eurostat, OECD, EIB, GEM, Eurobarometer og nationale økosystemrapporter. Resultaterne peger på, at Estlands succes udspringer af en stærk sammenhæng mellem institutionel effektivitet, digital infrastruktur, venturekapitalmarkeder og mekanismer for “founder recycling”. Kroatien har derimod opbygget mange formelle elementer—inkubatorer, acceleratorer, offentlig finansiering og teknisk talent—men disse er mindre integrerede og selvforstærkende. Vigtigt er det, at Kroatien ikke mangler entreprenøriel ambition; GEM-data viser høj intention og selvtillid, men aktiviteten samler sig om traditionelle SMV’er og selvstændig virksomhed snarere end innovationsdrevet skalering. Specialet konkluderer, at produktivt entreprenørskab bedst opstår, hvor institutionelle, finansielle og kulturelle forhold gensidigt forstærker hinanden over tid, og at økosystemers udvikling er sti-afhængig og ikke kan reduceres til enkeltstående politiske tiltag.
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Keywords