U.S.-China Relations, 2001-2015: Economic Interdependence and the Taiwan Issue

Tomzak, Annika

4. term

Development and International Relations, Master

2016

2016-05-31

70

Siden Kinas markedsåbning sidst i 1970’erne og gennemgribende økonomiske reformer er landets økonomi og globale indflydelse vokset markant. I begyndelsen af det 21. århundrede blev Kina anset som en af de største nye magter med potentiale til at udfordre en USA-domineret verdensorden. Denne afhandling undersøger forholdet mellem USA og Kina i perioden 2001–2015 med særlig vægt på deres økonomiske gensidige afhængighed (hvordan de to økonomier er tæt forbundne gennem handel og investeringer) og på, hvordan Taiwan-spørgsmålet påvirker relationen. Analysen ser på handlen mellem USA og Kina fra 2001 til 2015 samt de gensidige udenlandske investeringer. Den bilaterale varehandel voksede kraftigt: ifølge Kinas National Bureau of Statistics steg den fra 80,48 mia. dollars i 2001 til 520,75 mia. dollars i 2013. Amerikanske tal fra United States Census Bureau viser andre beløb—121,46 mia. dollars i 2001 og 562,16 mia. dollars i 2013—hvilket afspejler, at landene bruger forskellige metoder til at opgøre statistikker. Ud over handlen voksede de bilaterale investeringer også. USA var Kinas sjette største investor med i alt 2,59 mia. dollars i 2015. Kinas lavere lønomkostninger sammenlignet med andre asiatiske lande gjorde landet attraktivt for amerikanske producenter, som flyttede aktiviteter fra f.eks. Japan eller Taiwan til Kina og dermed bidrog til Kinas indgående direkte investeringer. For at belyse Taiwan-spørgsmålets betydning analyseres USA’s og Kinas reaktioner på Taiwans tiltag mod uafhængighed samt USA’s fortsatte våbensalg til Taiwan. Siden Anden Verdenskrig har forholdet mellem USA og Taiwan været tæt. Amerikanske regeringer i det 21. århundrede har fremhævet, at de tre fælles kommunikéer—og dermed ét-Kina-princippet (at der kun er ét Kina)—samt Taiwan Relations Act (en amerikansk lov, der forpligter USA til at støtte Taiwans selvforsvar) er grundlaget for relationen. Forholdet blev sat på prøve, da præsident Chen Shui-bian arbejdede målrettet for større uafhængighed; Bush-administrationen afviste ensidige forsøg på at ændre status quo over Taiwanstrædet. Alligevel fortsatte våbensalgene gennem perioden, begrundet med Taiwan Relations Act’s krav om udelukkende defensive leverancer. Efter Ma Ying-jeous tiltræden som Taiwans præsident blev relationerne over strædet forbedret, ikke mindst gennem nye økonomiske politikker og aftaler mellem Taiwan og Kina. Kina fastholder, at USA officielt anerkender ét-Kina-princippet og Folkerepublikken Kina som Kinas eneste legitime regering, og at Taiwan derfor er et internt anliggende, som USA ikke bør blande sig i. Desuden argumenterer Kina for, at visse våbensalg ikke er rent defensive. Samlet set blev de økonomiske relationer mellem USA og Kina betydeligt styrket i 2001–2015, hvilket også havde en positiv effekt på de politiske relationer. Forbedrede økonomiske bånd over strædet var ligeledes gunstige for USA–Kina-forholdet. Ikke desto mindre består der fortsat følsomme og kontroversielle spørgsmål mellem de to lande.

Since China opened its market in the late 1970s and launched major economic reforms, its economy and global influence have grown markedly. By the early 21st century, China was viewed as a leading emerging power with the potential to challenge a U.S.-led world order. This thesis examines U.S.-China relations from 2001 to 2015, focusing on economic interdependence (how the two economies are tightly linked through trade and investment) and on how the Taiwan issue shapes the relationship. The study analyzes U.S.-China trade from 2001 to 2015 and two-way foreign investment. Bilateral goods trade expanded rapidly: according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, it rose from $80.48 billion in 2001 to $520.75 billion in 2013. U.S. figures from the United States Census Bureau report different totals—$121.46 billion in 2001 and $562.16 billion in 2013—reflecting different statistical methods. Beyond trade, bilateral investment also grew. The United States was China’s sixth-largest investor, with $2.59 billion in 2015. Lower labor costs in China compared with other Asian countries attracted U.S. manufacturers, who relocated from places such as Japan or Taiwan to China, contributing to China’s inward foreign direct investment. To assess the impact of Taiwan on U.S.-China relations, the thesis reviews U.S. and Chinese responses to Taiwan’s moves toward greater independence and the continuation of U.S.-Taiwan arms sales. U.S.-Taiwan ties have been close since World War II. U.S. administrations in the 21st century emphasized that the three Joint Communiqués—and thus the one-China principle (the idea that there is only one China)—together with the Taiwan Relations Act (a U.S. law committing support for Taiwan’s self-defense) form the basis of the relationship. The relationship was tested when President Chen Shui-bian pursued steps toward independence; the Bush administration opposed unilateral changes to the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Nevertheless, arms sales continued during the period, justified by the Taiwan Relations Act’s focus on defensive equipment. After Ma Ying-jeou took office as Taiwan’s president, cross-strait relations improved, supported by new economic policies and agreements between Taiwan and China. China maintains that the United States formally acknowledges the one-China principle and the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government, making Taiwan an internal matter in which the U.S. should not interfere; it also argues that some arms sales are not purely defensive. Overall, U.S.-China economic ties strengthened significantly from 2001 to 2015, which also positively affected political relations. Better economic links across the strait likewise benefited U.S.-China relations. Nonetheless, sensitive and controversial issues between the two countries remain.

[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]

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Tomzak, Annika:

• U.S.-China Relations: Economic Interdependence and the Taiwan Issue (2016)