Towards dynamic CCA planning - an investigation of the concept of DAPP's applicability for rainwater management in Frederiksberg, Denmark

Abstract

Human-induced climate change will lead to more frequent and intense extreme events setting urban populations at risk from climate change (CC). Therefore, climate change adaptation (CCA) is necessary to respond to the increased risk of CC. In Frederiksberg, Denmark, ambitious CCA strategies have been developed to accommodate future extreme precipitation events. However, these strategies have a static character making them vulnerable to the uncertainties associated with CC. On this basis, the following research question has been investigated: 􀍞H􀅽􀇁 ca􀅶 a 􀆐􀆚􀆌a􀆚eg􀇇 f􀅽􀆌 CCA be de􀇀el􀅽􀆉ed which meets short terms adaptation goals while being sufficiently robust and flexible to keep options open for future actions or shifts in strategy to accommodate f􀆵􀆚􀆵􀆌e 􀆌i􀆐k􀍍􀍟. The research investigates the utilization of elements from the concept of Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) to promote dynamic CCA strategies based on Frederiksberg’s Rainwater Plan which is currently under development. A risk assessment has been performed of a case area to understand both the current and future local risks. Additionally, potential CCA measures have been mapped and subsequently assessed in relation to their physical suitability. The suitable measures have then been assessed based on a multicriteria analysis (MCA) through the utilization of criteria which represent the context of planning under deep uncertainty. On this basis, adaptation pathways have been developed which both have a significant short-term effect and have a character that ensures that the measures will not lose their value under unpredicted future climatic conditions or in case of shifts in strategy to new measures. On this basis, it can be derived, that the investigated approach to dynamic CCA is suitable to create a systematic approach for dynamic CCA planning. However, the actual facilitation of a DAPP-process must include wide participation of stakeholders to strengthen the MCA and to ensure an embeddedness of the strategy in the relevant organizations.

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A master thesis from Aalborg University

Towards dynamic CCA planning - an investigation of the concept of DAPP's applicability for rainwater management in Frederiksberg, Denmark