Tomorrow's World: Contested Futures: A comparative analysis of futuring
Translated title
Tomorrow's World: Contested Futures
Author
Hansen, Andreas Holmelund
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2016
Submitted on
2016-05-30
Pages
81
Abstract
This thesis examines how imagined futures are produced, contested and shape the field of tourism. Against a backdrop of rapid innovation and shifting consumer needs, it frames six trend domains—political, economic, technological, environmental, social and demographic—as the theoretical context. The aim is to show how different futures are constructed and how they diverge, and to consider contemporary tools used to articulate concrete scenarios. Positioned within a social constructivist perspective, where discourses, practices and expectations shape understandings of reality, the study conducts a comparative, conceptual analysis of three futuring approaches: futurologist Ian Yeoman, sociologist John Urry, and a design thinking perspective. Three cross-cutting themes—technology, mobility and sustainability—emerge as key drivers. Yeoman outlines a technologically optimistic “one future for all,” featuring widespread space tourism, fluid identities and virtual reality, with sustainability primarily enabling continued global travel for the affluent. Urry emphasizes dystopian scenarios shaped by technological path dependency, insecure mobilities, inequality, and climate-driven resource conflicts. Design thinking starts from the consumer and co-construction, using personas to suggest that future hotels will be tailored to Generation Y with high technology, low ecological footprints and organic environments. Overall, the thesis underscores that futures are performative processes made in the present, and that competing visions lead to markedly different implications for tourism planning and design.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan forestillinger om fremtiden bliver til, konkurrerer og påvirker turismefeltet. Med udgangspunkt i hurtig innovation og skiftende forbrugerbehov rammes særligt seks trendområder – politiske, økonomiske, teknologiske, miljømæssige, sociale og demografiske – der danner den teoretiske baggrund. Formålet er at vise, hvordan forskellige fremtider konstrueres og adskiller sig fra hinanden, samt hvilke nutidige værktøjer der bruges til at formulere konkrete scenarier. Specialet placerer sig i en socialkonstruktivistisk optik, hvor diskurser, praksisser og forventninger former virkelighedsforståelsen, og gennemfører en komparativ, konceptuel analyse af tre tilgange til futuring: futurologen Ian Yeoman, sociologen John Urry og et design thinking-perspektiv. Tre tværgående temaer—teknologi, mobilitet og bæredygtighed—viser sig som centrale drivkræfter. Yeoman skitserer en teknologisk optimistisk “én fremtid for alle” med udbredt rumturisme, flydende identiteter og virtuel virkelighed, hvor bæredygtighed primært understøtter fortsat global rejse for de velstillede. Urry peger på dystopiske scenarier præget af teknologisk sti-afhængighed, usikre mobiliteter, ulighed og klimadrevne konflikter om ressourcer. Design thinking tager udgangspunkt i brugeren og samskabelse, bl.a. gennem persona-arbejde, og antyder, at fremtidens hoteller skræddersys til Generation Y med høj teknologi, lavt økologisk aftryk og organiske miljøer. Overordnet fremhæver specialet, at fremtider er performative processer skabt i nutiden, og at forskellige visioner giver vidt forskellige implikationer for planlægning og design i turisme.
[This apstract has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project full text]