Threat perception of Chinese interests in Greenland
Author
Lauritzen, Nicklas Egedal
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2019
Submitted on
2019-05-22
Pages
43
Abstract
Afhandlingen undersøger, hvordan kinesiske interesser i Grønland opfattes som en mulig trussel mod Danmark og USA i en tid, hvor klimaforandringer øger Arktis’ betydning og åbner nye muligheder. Med udgangspunkt i neorealisme anvendes Stephen Walts “balance of threat”-ramme (aggregeret magt, geografisk nærhed, offensive kapabiliteter og offensive intentioner) og et særligt fokus på trusselsopfattelse til at strukturere en casestudieanalyse af Kinas aktiviteter. Empirisk ser afhandlingen på Kinas selvforståelse som “nær-arktisk stat”, fire kinesiske minekontrakter i Grønland og interesser ud over minedrift, herunder forskning og infrastruktur som CCCC’s bud på lufthavnsprojektet, samt hvordan disse tiltag kan have dobbelt anvendelse. Analysen inddrager amerikanske og danske reaktioner, herunder amerikanske forsvarsrapporter, danske debatter og konkrete sager, for at belyse, hvordan tilsyneladende civile projekter kan opfattes som strategiske udfordringer. Afhandlingen konkluderer, at selv om kinesiske aktiviteter i Grønland stadig er i en tidlig fase, ser Kina sig selv som en aktør med levedygtige arktiske interesser, mens USA og Danmark har reageret ved at balancere kinesiske skridt især uden for minedrift, fordi de kan opfattes som en risiko for stabilitet og eksisterende relationer i Grønland.
This thesis examines how Chinese interests in Greenland are perceived as a potential threat to Denmark and the United States at a time when climate change increases the Arctic’s importance and opens new opportunities. Using a neorealist lens, it applies Stephen Walt’s balance of threat framework (aggregate power, geographic proximity, offensive capabilities, and offensive intentions) with a particular emphasis on threat perception to structure a case study of China’s activities. Empirically, it considers China’s self-identification as a “near-Arctic state,” four Chinese mining contracts in Greenland, and interests beyond mining—such as research and infrastructure, including CCCC’s bid for the airport project—and how these initiatives may have dual-use implications. The analysis incorporates U.S. and Danish reactions, including defense assessments, domestic debates, and concrete cases, to show how seemingly civilian projects can be viewed as strategic challenges. The thesis concludes that although Chinese activities in Greenland remain at an early stage, China sees itself as having viable Arctic interests, while the United States and Denmark have responded by balancing Chinese moves particularly outside mining, as these are perceived to pose risks to stability and existing relations in Greenland.
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