The War in Ukraine and the European Green Deal: To what extent has the war in Ukraine impacted the prioritisation of combatting climate change in the European Green Deal?
Translated title
The War in Ukraine and the European Green Deal
Author
Mark, Elias
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2023
Abstract
The European Union is widely viewed as a leader in climate policy, particularly through the European Green Deal, which aims for climate neutrality. At the same time, the Union has a history of sidelining climate action during crises—a pattern that began to shift during the COVID-19 pandemic. The war in Ukraine has put the EU back into crisis mode and raises a key question: Has this crisis reduced the Green Deal’s focus on tackling climate change? This study examines the extent to which the war in Ukraine has affected the prioritisation of combating climate change within the European Green Deal. It uses a social constructivist perspective that focuses on how political actors interpret and frame issues. Two theories guide the analysis: the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF), which views policy as the coupling of three streams (problems, solutions, and politics), and securitisation theory, which examines when an issue is presented as an urgent security threat requiring extraordinary measures. The study looks at the agenda-setting stage of the policy cycle and treats the European Commission as a policy entrepreneur that can couple streams when a “window of opportunity” opens—in this case, the outbreak of the war. Methodologically, the study compares the prioritisation of climate action before and after the start of the war by assessing the level of securitisation of climate change. A framing analysis is applied to the original Green Deal document, the Commission’s energy and industry strategy documents within the Green Deal, and the 2021 and 2022 State of the Union speeches. Findings suggest the war has negatively affected the prioritisation of climate action in the Green Deal. In industry policy, there is no significant change in the securitisation of climate change. In energy policy and in the speeches, the securitisation of climate is closely tied to the securitisation of the war in Ukraine. In practice, the Commission still advances decarbonisation, but it is increasingly framed as a response to the war’s impacts rather than primarily as a response to climate change.
EU er ofte blevet set som en frontløber i klimapolitik, især med den Europæiske Grønne Pagt, der sigter mod klimaneutralitet. Samtidig har Unionen historisk nedprioriteret klimaindsats, når nye kriser rammer—en tendens, der først begyndte at vende under COVID-19. Krigen i Ukraine har igen sat EU i krisetilstand og rejser spørgsmålet: Har denne krise svækket klimaets plads i den Grønne Pagt? Dette studie undersøger i hvilket omfang krigen i Ukraine har påvirket prioriteringen af at bekæmpe klimaforandringer i den Europæiske Grønne Pagt. Undersøgelsen bygger på en socialkonstruktivistisk tilgang, som fokuserer på, hvordan politiske aktører fortolker og indrammer problemer. To teorier anvendes: Multiple Streams Framework (MSF), der ser politik som samspil mellem tre strømme (problemer, løsninger og politik), og sekuritiseringsteori, der handler om at fremstille et emne som en akut sikkerhedstrussel, som kræver ekstraordinære tiltag. Analysen placeres i politikcyklussens dagsordensfase og ser på Europa-Kommissionen som en policy-iværksætter, der kan koble strømme sammen, når et "mulighedsvindue" opstår—her forstået som krigens udbrud. Metodisk sammenlignes prioriteringen af klimahandling før og efter krigens begyndelse ved at måle graden af sekuritisering af klimaforandringer. Indholdet analyseres gennem en framinganalyse af den oprindelige Grønne Pagt, Kommissionens strategidokumenter inden for energi og industri samt State of the Union-talerne fra 2021 og 2022. Resultaterne peger på, at krigen har påvirket prioriteringen af klimaindsatsen negativt i den Grønne Pagt. I industripolitikken ses ingen væsentlig ændring i sekuritiseringen af klimaforandringer. I energipolitikken og i talerne kobles sekuritiseringen af klima i høj grad til sekuritiseringen af krigen i Ukraine. Med andre ord fortsætter Kommissionen med at fremme afkarbonisering, men begrundelsen præsenteres i højere grad som et svar på krigens konsekvenser snarere end som et direkte svar på klimaforandringer.
[This apstract has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]
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