The role of Russia's 'near-abroad' in its foreign policy towards the West: The case of Belarus
Author
Gütmane, Liga
Term
4. term
Publication year
2022
Submitted on
2022-05-27
Pages
70
Abstract
This thesis examines how Russia’s perception of a growing threat from NATO shapes its military relationship with Belarus and the roles Belarus plays in Russia’s security vis-à-vis the West. Using a single-case study and a primarily deductive approach, it applies a neorealist framework that assumes an asymmetrical relationship in which Russia, as the larger power, leverages Belarus to balance NATO’s capabilities. Covering 2000–2022 and considering both bilateral and multilateral cooperation frameworks, including the CIS, the CSTO, and the Union State, the study finds that military integration between Russia and Belarus has deepened over the past two decades, in part as a response to Russia’s rising threat perception of the West. Belarus serves Russia as a tool to balance NATO and its members, a sphere of influence, a defensive strategic buffer, and a potential platform for offensive operations against the West. The first three roles have been present throughout the period and have grown in importance, while the final role gained prominence in recent years, notably in 2022 when Belarusian territory was used in the attack on Ukraine. Although centered on Belarus, the findings speak to the broader significance of Russia’s ‘near abroad’ in its policy toward the West.
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan Ruslands opfattelse af en voksende trussel fra NATO præger landets militære forhold til Belarus og hvilken rolle Belarus spiller i Ruslands sikkerhedspolitik over for Vesten. Med udgangspunkt i et enkelt casestudie og en primært deduktiv tilgang anvendes en neorealistisk ramme, som antager et asymmetrisk forhold, hvor Rusland som større magt bruger Belarus til at balancere NATO’s kapaciteter. Analysen dækker perioden 2000–2022 og inddrager både bilaterale og multilaterale rammer for samarbejde, herunder CIS, CSTO og Unionsstaten mellem Rusland og Belarus. Resultaterne viser, at den militære integration mellem Rusland og Belarus er blevet styrket over de sidste to årtier, delvist som reaktion på Ruslands tiltagende trusselsopfattelse af Vesten. Belarus fungerer for Rusland som et redskab til at balancere NATO og dets medlemmer, som en indflydelsessfære, som en defensiv strategisk buffer og som en mulig platform for offensive operationer mod Vesten. De tre første roller har været til stede i hele den analyserede periode, og deres betydning er øget i takt med Ruslands voksende trusselsopfattelse; den sidste rolle er blevet mere fremtrædende de seneste år, især i 2022, hvor belarusisk territorium blev brugt til angrebet på Ukraine. Mens fokus er på Belarus, peger afhandlingen på, at indsigterne kan informere en bredere diskussion om betydningen af Ruslands ’nære udland’ i landets politik over for Vesten.
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Keywords
Russia ; Belarus ; Military alliance ; Neorealism ; NATO ; West ; Security ; Balance of power ; Balance of threat ; Geopolitics