The promotion of onshore wind power in Germany and the amended Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017: Investigation of the Sernow wind park’s business-economic feasibility by different marketing options in terms of the new subsidy scheme
Translated title
The promotion of onshore wind power in Germany and the amended Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017
Authors
Irion, Clarissa Yvonne ; Felber, Bernhard Michael
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2017
Submitted on
2017-06-02
Pages
152
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan ændringen af den tyske lov om vedvarende energi i 2017 (Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, EEG 2017) påvirker forretningsgrundlaget for onshore-vindparken Sernow i Brandenburg og dens måder at sælge elektricitet på det tyske elmarked. Under EEG 2017 skal producenter sælge strømmen direkte på markedet, og støtten udbetales som en markedspræmie oven på markedsprisen. Støtten fastsættes nu via auktioner i stedet for faste feed-in tariffer (garanterede afregningspriser). For at kunne sammenligne salgs- og markedsføringsmulighederne på elbørsen blev Sernow-vindparken modelleret og optimeret i windPRO for at skabe en produktionsprofil med samme tidsopløsning som markedspriserne. Studiet vurderer tre salgsstrategier (scenarier): day-ahead markedet, intradagmarkedet og en kombination af begge. Det undersøger også muligheden for, at vindmøller deltager på balancemarkederne, særligt den negative tertiærreguleringsreserve (en systemydelse, der bruges til at stabilisere elnettet). Resultaterne viser, at intradagscenariet klarer sig en anelse bedre, men alle tre strategier giver næsten samme økonomiske resultat. Med den nuværende markedspræmiestøtte fra EEG for Sernow har valget af salgsvej begrænset betydning. Resultaterne er dog følsomme over for centrale forudsætninger; under mindre gunstige input kan projektet blive økonomisk uattraktivt. Der er teknisk potentiale for deltagelse i den negative tertiærreserve, men forventet lave priser og risiko for tab af støtte udgør økonomiske barrierer.
This thesis examines how the 2017 update to Germany’s Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG 2017) affects the business case for the Sernow onshore wind park in Brandenburg and the ways it can sell electricity on the German power market. Under EEG 2017, generators must sell power directly on the market, and support is paid as a market premium that tops up the market price. The level of support is now determined by auctions rather than fixed feed-in tariffs. To compare sales options on the power exchange, the Sernow wind farm was modeled and optimized in windPRO to produce a generation profile with the same time resolution as market prices. The study evaluates three sales strategies (scenarios): day-ahead, intraday, and a mix of both. It also explores whether wind turbines can participate in balancing power markets, specifically the negative tertiary control reserve (a type of service used to stabilize the grid). Findings show that while the intraday scenario performs slightly better, all three strategies lead to very similar financial outcomes. With the current EEG market premium applied to Sernow, the choice of sales channel has little impact. However, results are sensitive to key assumptions; under less favorable inputs, the project can become economically unviable. There is technical potential to participate in the negative tertiary control reserve, but expected low prices and possible subsidy losses create financial barriers.
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