The implications of a decentralised energy system in the United Kingdom
Author
Paardekooper, Susana
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2015
Abstract
Når Storbritannien drøfter overgangen til et mere energieffektivt og vedvarende energisystem, nævnes “decentral energi” ofte, men begrebet er uklart. Denne afhandling afklarer, hvad et decentraliseret energisystem kan betyde for Storbritannien frem mod 2050 og undersøger dets systemmæssige konsekvenser. Først behandles decentral energi i både sociale og tekniske termer og placeres i en Smart Energy Systems‑kontekst, som betragter energisystemet som en integreret helhed. Derefter modelleres tre fremtider—decentraliseret, centraliseret og “business as usual”—for at sammenligne struktur og ydeevne. Modelleringen viser, at et decentraliseret system kan afkarbonisere til lavere omkostninger. Sammenlignet med det centraliserede scenarie reducerer det CO2‑udledninger med 11% mere, integrerer et væsentligt højere niveau af intermittent vedvarende energi (hvor produktionen varierer med vejret), og koster 15 milliarder euro mindre om året. Disse fordele skyldes større sammenkobling og fleksibilitet i systemet. Med et tillids‑ og koordineringsspil som analogi viser afhandlingen, at høj teknisk sammenhæng har betydning for, hvordan energi forstås, og for de niveauer af tillid, koordinering og regulering, der er nødvendige for at opretholde et sådant system. Fokus flytter mod investeringer i infrastruktur, at omfordele gevinsterne ved decentralisering og planlægningspraksisser, der understøtter et sammenkoblet system. Samlet set kan et decentraliseret energisystem give store fordele for både klima og omkostninger i Storbritannien, men det vil kræve ændringer i, hvordan der investeres, planlægges og reguleres. Der er behov for videre forskning i, hvordan et sådant system kan implementeres, og hvordan energiomstillingen kan gennemføres.
As the UK debates a shift to a more energy‑efficient, renewable system, “decentralised energy” is mentioned often but remains vague. This thesis clarifies what a decentralised energy system could mean for the UK by 2050 and explores its system‑wide effects. The study first discusses decentralised energy in social and technical terms and places it in a Smart Energy Systems context, which views the energy system as an integrated whole. It then models three futures—decentralised, centralised, and business as usual—to compare how they are structured and how they perform. The modelling indicates that a decentralised system can decarbonise at lower cost. Compared with the centralised scenario, it reduces CO2 emissions by 11% more, integrates a much higher level of intermittent renewables (whose output varies with the weather), and costs 15 billion euro less per year. These advantages stem from greater connectivity and flexibility across the system. Using a trust‑and‑coordination game as an analogy, the thesis shows that high technical interconnection has consequences for how energy is understood and for the levels of trust, coordination, and regulation needed to keep such a system working. The focus shifts toward investing in infrastructure, redistributing the benefits of decentralisation, and planning practices that support an interconnected system. Overall, a decentralised energy system could deliver substantial carbon and cost benefits for the UK, but it would require changes in how energy is invested in, planned, and regulated. Further research should explore how such a system could be implemented and how the wider energy transition could be achieved.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]
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