The Impact of the Persian Gulf Instability on the Other Coutries' National Energy Strategies: the Cases of China and Italy
Author
Venosta, Marco
Term
4. term
Publication year
2020
Abstract
Mellemøsten, især Den Persiske Golf, er en af verdens vigtigste olieproducerende regioner og præges ofte af uro. Begivenheder som drabet på general Qassim Suleimani har igen vist, hvor hurtigt en krise kan true den globale energiforsyning. Hvis en konflikt spærrer for olie fra Golfen, kan priserne stige kraftigt, og leverancer blive forstyrret—med konsekvenser for lande, der er afhængige af import. Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan den tilbagevendende ustabilitet i Golfen påvirker energistrategierne i to lande, der traditionelt importerer meget olie derfra: Kina og Italien. For at besvare spørgsmålet anvendes begrebet asymmetrisk indbyrdes afhængighed (når parter afhænger af hinanden, men ikke lige meget, hvilket giver den ene mere indflydelse) og geopolitisk teori. Disse vinkler bruges til at analysere data om de to landes energipolitikker for at vurdere, om og hvordan de ændrer kurs. Analysen peger på forskellige reaktioner. Kina har intensiveret sin diversificering—det vil sige at sprede energikilder og leverandører for at mindske afhængigheden af Golfen—og har samtidig fremskyndet egne tiltag for at beskytte de ”fire A’er” i energisikkerhed (en ramme, der bl.a. ser på tilgængelighed og overkommelighed). Italiens energistrategi er derimod kun delvist ved at diversificere, hvilket viser en mere begrænset ændring. Konklusionen er, at Kina og Italien reagerer forskelligt på ustabiliteten i Den Persiske Golf: Kina forfølger en bred diversificering og beskyttende tiltag, mens Italien kun gennemfører en ufuldstændig diversificering.
The Middle East, especially the Persian Gulf, is one of the world’s key oil-producing regions and is frequently marked by instability. Events such as the assassination of General Qassim Suleimani have shown how quickly a crisis can threaten global energy supplies. If conflict disrupts oil from the Gulf, prices could surge and deliveries could be interrupted—affecting countries that depend on imports. This thesis examines how recurring instability in the Gulf shapes the energy strategies of two countries that have historically imported large amounts of oil from the region: China and Italy. To address this question, it applies the concept of asymmetrical interdependence (when mutual dependence is uneven, giving one side more leverage) and geopolitical theory. These perspectives are used to analyze data on each country’s energy policies to see whether, and how, they are changing. The analysis points to different responses. China has intensified diversification—spreading energy sources and suppliers to reduce its reliance on the Gulf—and has accelerated self-directed measures to protect the “four A’s” of energy security (a framework that considers factors such as accessibility and affordability). Italy’s energy strategy, by contrast, is only partially diversifying, showing a more limited shift. The conclusion is that China and Italy are responding differently to instability in the Persian Gulf: China is pursuing broad diversification and protective steps, while Italy is implementing diversification more incompletely.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]
Keywords
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