the Gaming Among China, the Philippines and the US in the South China Sea Dispute
Author
Zhong, Xinhui
Term
4. term
Publication year
2013
Submitted on
2013-05-31
Pages
56
Abstract
The South China Sea has drawn global attention due to escalating sovereignty disputes, significant potential oil and gas reserves, and its strategic role in vital sea-lanes. This thesis asks: How do the key players—China, the Philippines, and the United States—“play” the dispute? Using a sequential game-theoretic model with complete and perfect information, combined with classical international relations theories (realism and liberalism), it analyzes possible strategies and associated payoffs for each actor. The study highlights China’s growing maritime interests tied to energy and access to the Pacific, and the U.S. aim to maintain regional balance and freedom of navigation through its rebalancing policy and support for the Philippines. The model yields a subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium, and the overall finding is that the most acceptable strategy for the parties is to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea.
Sydkinesiske Hav har tiltrukket global opmærksomhed på grund af tiltagende suverænitetsstridigheder, store potentielle olie- og gasreserver og en central placering for søtransport. Denne afhandling stiller spørgsmålet: Hvordan “spiller” de centrale aktører – Kina, Filippinerne og USA – i konflikten? Med udgangspunkt i en sekventiel spilteoretisk model med fuldstændig og perfekt information, kombineret med klassiske teorier i international politik (realisme og liberalisme), analyseres mulige strategier og tilhørende gevinster for hver aktør. Afhandlingen fremhæver Kinas voksende maritime interesser og hensynet til energi- og forsyningslinjer, samt USA’s ønske om magtbalance og fri sejlads i regionen, herunder en rebalanceringspolitik og støtte til Filippinerne. På baggrund af modellen udledes en subspilsperfekt Nash-ligevægt, og den overordnede konklusion er, at den mest acceptable strategi for parterne er at bevare status quo i Sydkinesiske Hav.
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