A master programme thesis from Aalborg University
The Energy Transition of Ukraine - From Monocentric to a Decentralised and Resilient Energy System
Author(s)
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-05-27
Pages
145 pages
Abstract
Ukraine's monocentric structure and centralised, fossil fuel-based energy system is characterised by import dependencies on its Soviet legacy. This introduced inefficiencies, which were further exposed by the Russian invasion in 2022, entailing a reconstruction of critical energy infrastructure. The invasion presents a turning point for Ukraine to rethink its energy transition toward a more resilient and decentralised system. This leads to the following research questions: How can resilience and decentralisation be implemented in a national energy planning strategy for Ukraine’s heating and electricity sectors towards 2050 to decrease the monocentric structure and improve energy security? A mixed-method approach is applied, combining energy system modelling, using the tool EnergyPLAN, stakeholder analysis, and institutional reform analysis. The project builds on Concrete Institutional Economics, Innovative Democracy, and Institutional Theory, forming the Socio-Technical Institutional Transition Framework, which guides the following analyses. The three analyses investigate: A modelled energy scenario for Ukraine's electricity and heat sector to support decentralisation and resilience in 2050, the stakeholder landscape critical to implement the modelled scenario, and market, institutional and technical reforms needed for a sustainable long-term transition. The project concludes that Ukraine can enhance energy security with institutional changes by integrating multi-level governance measures in the governmental structure and decentralising energy production by increasing domestic renewable energy sources.
Keywords
Documents
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