The Energy Transition of Ukraine - From Monocentric to a Decentralised and Resilient Energy System
Authors
Nielsen, Freja Gjørup ; Andersen, Rasmus Nicolai Høgh
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-05-28
Pages
145
Abstract
Ukraine’s energy system, inherited from the Soviet era, is centralized, fossil fuel-based, and dependent on imports. These inefficiencies were exposed during the 2022 Russian invasion, when critical infrastructure was damaged and had to be rebuilt. This moment is a turning point to move toward a more resilient and decentralized system. The thesis asks: How can resilience and decentralization be built into a national planning strategy for the heat and electricity sectors toward 2050 to reduce reliance on a single center and improve energy security? We use a mixed-methods approach that combines energy system modeling with EnergyPLAN (a tool that simulates how energy demand and supply can be balanced), stakeholder analysis, and analysis of institutional reforms. The work draws on Concrete Institutional Economics, Innovative Democracy, and Institutional Theory, combined in a Socio-Technical Institutional Transition Framework that guides the analyses. We examine (1) a modeled 2050 scenario for electricity and heat that supports decentralization and resilience, (2) which stakeholders are critical for implementing the scenario, and (3) the market, institutional, and technical reforms needed for a sustainable long-term transition. The study concludes that Ukraine can enhance energy security by adopting institutional changes that integrate multi-level governance (coordination across national, regional, and local authorities) and by decentralizing energy production through greater use of domestic renewable energy sources.
Ukraines energisystem er arvet fra sovjettiden: et centraliseret, fossilbaseret system præget af importafhængighed. Det har skabt ineffektivitet, som blev tydelig under den russiske invasion i 2022, hvor kritisk infrastruktur blev beskadiget og skulle genopbygges. Invasionen markerer et vendepunkt, hvor Ukraine kan gentænke sin energiomstilling mod et mere robust og decentralt system. Afhandlingen spørger: Hvordan kan robusthed og decentralisering indarbejdes i en national energiplan for varme- og elsektoren frem mod 2050 for at mindske afhængigheden af et enkelt centrum og styrke energisikkerheden? Vi bruger en mixed-methods-tilgang, der kombinerer energisystemmodellering med EnergyPLAN (et værktøj, der simulerer, hvordan energibehov og -produktion kan balanceres), interessentanalyse og analyse af institutionelle reformer. Arbejdet bygger på Concrete Institutional Economics, Innovative Democracy og Institutionel Teori, samlet i en Socio-Technical Institutional Transition Framework, som guider analyserne. Vi undersøger: (1) et modelleret 2050-scenarie for el og varme, der fremmer decentralisering og robusthed, (2) hvilke aktører der er afgørende for at gennemføre scenariet, og (3) hvilke markeds-, institutionelle og tekniske reformer der kræves for en langsigtet, bæredygtig omstilling. Konklusionen er, at Ukraine kan styrke energisikkerheden gennem institutionelle ændringer, der integrerer flerniveaustyring (koordination mellem nationale, regionale og lokale myndigheder), og ved at decentralisere energiproduktionen gennem øget brug af indenlandske vedvarende energikilder.
[This apstract has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]
Keywords