The Electrification of Natural Gas-Based District Heating Systems in Denmark: A case study on Oksbøl combined heat and power plant
Authors
Schmidt, Martin Egeskov-Gjerka ; Thøgersen, Rasmus Hald ; Jonas, Markus
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2021
Submitted on
2021-06-03
Pages
134
Abstract
Dette speciale undersøger, om Danmark kan elektrificere naturgasbaseret fjernvarme. Det er vigtigt for at nå klimamålene for 2030 og for at udnytte variabel vedvarende el, der afhænger af vejret. Først testes med modellen EnergyPLAN, om kapaciteten på naturgasbaserede kraftvarmeværker—anlæg, der producerer el og varme samtidig—kan reduceres uden at gå på kompromis med elforsyningssikkerheden. Resultatet er, at det ikke kan lade sig gøre, medmindre kapaciteten erstattes af anden elproducerende kapacitet, forudsat at alle kulkraftværker udfases. Dernæst belyser et casestudie af Oksbøl kraftvarmeværk de økonomiske og institutionelle barrierer for elektrificering af fjernvarmen. Med modelleringsværktøjet energyPRO viser analysen, at elkedler er rentable både for virksomheder og samfund. Biomassekedler er dog billigere end varmepumper, hvilket kan pege på behov for en afgift på biomasse, hvis man ønsker elektrificering i stor skala. Endelig viser en institutionel analyse baseret på et kvalitativt interview, at relationer og magtforhold mellem aktører i høj grad præger udfasningen af naturgas og peger på et behov for innovativt demokrati, hvis omstillingen skal gennemføres.
This thesis explores whether Denmark can shift natural gas-based district heating to electricity. This supports the 2030 climate goals and helps integrate variable renewable electricity that depends on the weather. First, using the EnergyPLAN model, the study tests whether the capacity of natural gas-based combined heat and power plants—facilities that produce heat and electricity at the same time—can be reduced without risking security of electricity supply. The results show this is not possible unless that capacity is replaced by other electricity-generating capacity, assuming all coal-fired power plants are phased out. Second, a case study of the Oksbøl CHP plant examines economic and institutional barriers to electrifying district heating. Using the energyPRO modelling tool, the analysis finds that electric boilers are viable both for businesses and for society. However, biomass boilers are cheaper than heat pumps, which suggests a biomass tax may be needed if large-scale electrification is desired. Finally, an institutional analysis based on a qualitative interview shows that relationships and power among actors strongly influence the move away from natural gas and indicate a need for innovative democracy if the transition is to proceed.
[This summary has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]
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