The development of the JCPOA agreement between the EU and Iran. Is it still possible?
Author
Ghulamyar, Murtaza
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2023
Submitted on
2023-10-15
Pages
45
Abstract
This thesis examines how the United States' Maximum Pressure policy under the Trump administration affected the relationship between the European Union and Iran within the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and whether cooperation could be sustained or revived. It first traces the JCPOA's background and the evolution of Iran's nuclear program up to the agreement, then analyzes the policy responses by the EU and Iran to the US withdrawal and reimposed sanctions, including debates over the EU's Blocking Statute, the attempt to use the INSTEX mechanism, trade patterns, and nuclear activities. The study is a qualitative case study that applies neorealism and neoliberalism as a theoretical framework to interpret the parties' decisions and interests, drawing on official sources and existing research. The core hypothesis is that the Maximum Pressure campaign was the primary reason for the JCPOA's failure because it impeded meaningful EU-Iran engagement within the deal. The findings indicate that although both sides sought to continue cooperation and made efforts to keep the agreement alive, sanctions pressure forced them to change course; they were unable to neutralize the sanctions, and the JCPOA no longer delivered the main benefits for either side. The thesis discusses how this dynamic narrows the prospects for a durable revival of the agreement.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan USA's Maximum Pressure-policy under Trump-administrationen påvirkede forholdet mellem EU og Iran inden for rammerne af atomaftalen JCPOA, og om samarbejdet kunne opretholdes eller genoplivnes. Projektet skitserer først JCPOA's tilblivelse og Irans atomprograms udvikling frem til aftalen, og gennemgår derefter de politiske svar fra EU og Iran på den amerikanske tilbagetrækning og de efterfølgende sanktioner, herunder diskussioner om EU's Blocking Statute, forsøget med betalingsmekanismen INSTEX, handelsmønstre og udviklingen i de nukleare aktiviteter. Studien er et kvalitativt casestudie, der anvender neorealisme og neoliberalisme som teoretisk ramme til at analysere parternes beslutninger og interesser på baggrund af officielle kilder og eksisterende forskning. Hovedhypotesen er, at Maximum Pressure-kampagnen var den primære årsag til, at JCPOA brød sammen, fordi den forhindrede EU og Iran i at engagere sig meningsfuldt inden for aftalens rammer. Fundene peger på, at begge parter var villige til at fortsætte samarbejdet og i et vist omfang forsøgte at holde aftalen i live, men at sanktionspresset tvang dem til at ændre politisk kurs; de kunne ikke neutralisere sanktionerne, og JCPOA gav ikke længere de centrale gevinster for nogen af siderne. Specialet diskuterer dermed, hvordan denne dynamik indsnævrer mulighederne for en varig genoplivning af aftalen.
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