The Antagonistic Sino-US Trade Relations under The Trump Administration: US's Inclination Towards Anti-Globalization and the Ongoing Power Transition in International Order
Author
Zhang, Han
Term
4. term
Publication year
2018
Pages
58
Abstract
Dette speciale undersøger, hvorfor de sino-amerikanske handelsrelationer blev mere antagonistiske under Trump-administrationen. Med udgangspunkt i hegemonisk stabilitetsteori og argumenter om relative gevinster stilles der spørgsmål ved, om den bilaterale handel reelt kan forklare USAs store handelsunderskud, om USAs relative magt er faldende i forhold til Kina, og om Kina udfordrer USAs hegemoniske position. Den empiriske analyse gennemgår de strukturelle drivkræfter bag USAs underskud—forskelle i økonomiske strukturer og lønomkostninger, placeringer i globale værdikæder, den særlige rolle for dollaren (herunder Triffin-dilemmaet), lav opsparing og høj forbrugstilbøjelighed i den amerikanske økonomi samt begrænsninger på eksport af højteknologi til Kina—sammen med tendenser i USAs økonomiske, militære og bløde magt og den post-2008 fremvækst af populistisk anti-globalisering. Specialet finder, at underskuddene ikke kan tilskrives handel med Kina alene, men afspejler bredere systemiske og indenlandske forhold. Det argumenterer for, at en oplevet relativ tilbagegang og et indsnævrende gab til et fremadstormende Kina, kombineret med anti-globaliseringspres i hjemlandet, skabte det politiske grundlag for Trumps handelspolitiske protektionisme. I tråd med hegemonisk stabilitetsteori tolkes USAs tiltag som forsøg på at begrænse Kinas udfordring under en igangværende magtovergang i den internationale orden.
This thesis examines why Sino-US trade relations became increasingly antagonistic under the Trump administration. Drawing on hegemonic stability theory and debates on relative gains, it asks whether the bilateral trade relationship truly accounts for the United States’ large trade deficits, whether US relative power is declining vis-à-vis China, and whether China is challenging US hegemony. The empirical discussion reviews structural drivers of US deficits—differences in economic structures and labor costs, positions within global value chains, the special role of the US dollar (including the Triffin dilemma), low savings and high consumption in the US economy, and restrictions on high-tech exports to China—alongside trends in US economic, military, and soft power and the post-2008 rise of populist, anti-globalization sentiments. The thesis finds that US deficits cannot be attributed solely to trade with China; rather, they reflect broader systemic and domestic factors. It argues that a perceived relative decline and narrowing gap with a rising China, combined with domestic anti-globalization pressures, created the political basis for Trump-era trade protectionism. In line with hegemonic stability theory, US trade measures are interpreted as efforts to constrain China’s challenge during an ongoing power transition in the international order.
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