Sustainable Socio-technical Transition: A Scenario for ICT as a Situation of Opportunity in Södermalm 2030
Authors
Bang, Marie Sølgaard ; Løbner, Kristian
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2011
Submitted on
2011-06-09
Pages
224
Abstract
Dette studie undersøger, hvordan informations- og kommunikationsteknologier (IKT) kan bidrage til en socioteknisk omstilling mod et lavenergi-, lavkulstof-samfund i bydelen Södermalm i Stockholm. Vi bruger en Situation of Opportunity inspireret af backcasting (man starter med et ønsket fremtidsscenarie og arbejder baglæns): et scenarie, skildret gennem fire billeder af et fremtidigt Södermalm, hvor aktører (hvem), objekter (hvad) og tiltag (hvordan) er integreret. Datagrundlaget består af litteraturstudier og to fokusgrupper og analyseres, vurderes og diskuteres med støtte fra litteraturen og seks ekspertinterviews. Et centralt element er et hjemmeenergi-styringssystem, der kan styre husholdningens energiforbrug og informere beboere om energiydelse. Stockholms stad er identificeret som en nøgleaktør, der sandsynligvis vil gå forrest i omstillingen i samarbejde med andre aktører, fx nicheorienterede virksomheder. Med inspiration fra den videnskabelige tilgang Kritisk Realisme analyseres de underliggende mekanismer og strukturer med fokus på adfærdsændringer og Transition Management. Processen lægger særlig vægt på den strategiske fase, hvor der skabes transition arenas, og den taktiske fase, hvor aktører forhandler og implementerer objekter/tiltag. Analyserne peger på, at øget udbredelse af IKT sammen med ændringer i sociale strukturer – såsom normer, holdninger, overbevisninger og incitamenter – kan ændre borgernes adfærd i Södermalm. Rebound-effekter (hvor effektivisering kan føre til øget samlet forbrug) og de offentlige myndigheders rolle diskuteres; konklusionen er, at myndighederne spiller en afgørende rolle, og at rebound-effekter skal håndteres systematisk. Samtidig konkluderes det, at en høj grad af miljømæssig bæredygtighed vanskeligt kan opnås inden for det gældende neoklassiske regime. Overordnet viser studiet, at denne Situation of Opportunity kan bidrage til at destabilisere det nuværende sociotekniske regime og bane vejen for yderligere organisatoriske og sociale ændringer mod en bæredygtig omstilling.
This study investigates how information and communication technologies (ICT) can support a socio-technical transition toward a low-energy, low-carbon society in the district of Södermalm, Stockholm. We use a Situation of Opportunity inspired by backcasting (starting from a desired future and working backward): a scenario presented as four images of a future Södermalm that integrates actors (who), objects (what), and measures (how). The scenario is built from literature reviews and two focus groups, and analyzed, assessed, and discussed using literature and six expert interviews. A central feature is a home energy management system that can control household energy use and inform residents about energy performance. The City of Stockholm is identified as a key actor likely to lead the transition, working with other actors such as niche-oriented companies. Guided by the scientific approach of Critical Realism, we analyze underlying mechanisms and structures from the perspectives of behavior change and Transition Management. Particular attention is given to the strategic phase, where transition arenas are created, and the tactical phase, where agents negotiate and implement objects/measures. The analyses suggest that greater prevalence of ICT, together with changes in social structures—such as norms, attitudes, beliefs, and incentives—can lead to behavior change among Södermalm residents. We discuss rebound effects (efficiency gains that can increase overall consumption) and the role of public authorities, concluding that public authorities are crucial and that rebound effects must be addressed systematically. The study further concludes that a high level of environmental sustainability is difficult to achieve within the prevailing neo-classical regime. Overall, this Situation of Opportunity could help destabilize the current socio-technical regime and prepare the ground for further organizational and social changes to advance a sustainable transition.
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