Structural Transformation and Political Processes in Ethiopian Development: An analysis of the EPRDF regime in Ethiopia and its Agricultural Development Led Industrialization
Author
Klausen, Brian
Term
4. term
Publication year
2011
Submitted on
2011-12-20
Abstract
This thesis examines why Ethiopia, despite recent episodes of high GDP growth, remains predominantly reliant on rain‑fed subsistence agriculture, and what role the state and politics play in the country’s structural transformation toward more productive sectors. It addresses two linked questions: how definitions of developmental states fit Ethiopia’s governance, and how the EPRDF’s policies—particularly the Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy—shape structural transformation and align with Bruce F. Johnston and Peter Kilby’s recommendations for agriculture‑led development. The study is a case study based on document analysis and applies two analytical lenses: Johnston and Kilby’s agricultural strategy (focusing on extension services, land distribution, and rural–urban linkages) and Adrian Leftwich’s developmental state theory (focusing on the EPRDF, state capacity, and bureaucracy). The analysis finds that, in practice, ADLI does not comply with Johnston and Kilby’s recommended approach, with a possible exception in the nature of innovations promoted by the extension system. At the same time, outcomes under the EPRDF are mixed: while growth has been high, it appears driven mainly by favorable external conditions rather than productivity gains or structural change. The thesis concludes that a developmental state could emerge in Ethiopia, but realizing this would likely require a political turnaround.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvorfor Etiopien trods nylige perioder med høj BNP-vækst fortsat er domineret af regnafgrødebåret subsistenslandbrug, og hvilken rolle staten og politik spiller i den nødvendige strukturelle transformation mod mere produktive sektorer. Problemstillingen er todelt: hvordan definitioner af udviklingsstater passer med Etiopiens styringsstruktur, og hvordan EPRDF-regimets politik, især strategien Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI), påvirker transformationen og forholder sig til Bruce F. Johnston og Peter Kilbys anbefalinger for landbrugsbaseret udvikling. Specialet er et cases tudy baseret på dokumentanalyse og anvender to teoretiske rammer: Johnston og Kilbys landbrugsstrategi (med fokus på landbrugsrådgivning, jordfordeling og land–by-koblinger) og Adrian Leftwich’ teori om udviklingsstaten (med fokus på EPRDF, statslig kapacitet og bureaukrati). Analysen finder, at ADLI i praksis ikke lever op til Johnston og Kilbys anbefalinger, med mulig undtagelse af typen af innovationer, som landbrugsrådgivningen fremmer. Samtidig peger udviklingen under EPRDF på blandede resultater: på trods af høj vækst synes denne primært drevet af gunstige ydre forhold frem for produktivitetsstigninger eller ændret erhvervsstruktur. Konklusionen er, at der er en potentiel bane for en etiopisk udviklingsstat, men at dette sandsynligvis kræver et politisk kursskifte.
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