Smart expansion of offshore wind and Power-to-X for a sustainable electricity market
Translated title
Smart udvikling af havvind og PtX for et bæredygtigt elmarked
Authors
Thrimar, Nicklas Müller ; Chang, Shuo-Hsing
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2022
Submitted on
2022-06-03
Pages
101
Abstract
This thesis explores how a balanced expansion of offshore wind and Power-to-X (PtX) can support a stable and sustainable electricity market during the green transition without changing the current market design. It addresses two opposing risks: variable renewable generation pushing prices so low that business cases fail, and growing PtX demand driving electricity prices sharply upward. Using a game-theoretical lens to frame actor incentives, the study simulates more than 28 scenarios in EnergyPLAN, covering separate and coordinated sector development plus sensitivity analyses on flexibility, storage, transmission, and market conditions. The simulations indicate that one-sided expansion can raise exports, imports, and total system costs, reduce revenues when offshore wind is overbuilt, make PtX production more expensive, and temporarily increase emissions from fuel production—thus harming both actors’ economics and overall system performance. In coordinated scenarios, PtX helps absorb variable output and dampen price drops, while additional offshore wind mitigates PtX-driven price increases, together contributing to a steadier electricity market. The study therefore recommends a coordinated, stepwise rollout of offshore wind and PtX alongside parallel investments in flexibility, storage, and infrastructure consistent with smart energy system principles.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan en balanceret udbygning af havvind og Power-to-X (PtX) kan understøtte et stabilt og bæredygtigt elmarked i den grønne omstilling uden ændringer af markedsdesignet. Baggrunden er to modstridende risici: at variabel vedvarende el driver priserne så langt ned, at forretningsmodeller undergraves, og at stigende PtX-efterspørgsel presser priserne kraftigt op. Med et spilteoretisk udgangspunkt modelleres aktørincitamenter, og der gennemføres mere end 28 scenarier i EnergyPLAN for både separat og koordineret sektorudvikling samt følsomhedsanalyser af fleksibilitet, lagring, transmission og markedsforhold. Simulationerne indikerer, at ensidig udbygning kan øge eksport, import og samlede omkostninger, reducere indtjening ved overudbygning af havvind, gøre PtX-produktion dyrere og midlertidigt øge emissioner fra brændselsproduktion; dermed kan aktørerne skade både egenøkonomi og systemets ydeevne. I balancerede scenarier kan PtX absorbere variabel el og dæmpe prisfald, mens ekstra havvind kan modvirke prisstigninger drevet af PtX, hvilket samlet bidrager til et mere stabilt elmarked. På den baggrund anbefales en koordineret, trinvis udbygning af havvind og PtX samt parallel udbygning af fleksibilitet, lagring og infrastruktur i tråd med smart energy system-principperne.
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