A master thesis from Aalborg University
Scenario Planning vs Time-Series Analysis - How to Make Better Forecasts in Volatile Industries: -
[Scenario Planning vs Time-Series Analysis - How to Make Better Forecasts in Volatile Industries]
Author(s)
Term
4. term
Publication year
2019
Submitted on
2019-06-03
Pages
57 pages
Abstract
This report investigates how better forecasts can be made for the future in volatile industries by combining statistical predictions with strategic thinking. As scenario planning lacks a rich theoretical background, its development in practice is also limited (Chermack, 2004). While some paper discusses strategic thinking and numerical forecasts together, their capture is mostly descriptive and hardly even comparative. This paper examines whether it is beneficial to use a combined method of the two and if yes, what challenges have to be overcome to have the technique result in better quality forecasts. The findings state, that it does indeed provide valuable insights into the possibilities of the future to apply a mixed method consisting of time-series analysis and scenario planning and the learnings could be greater than when the techniques are put to use separately.
Documents
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