Risks and opportunities for developing the offshore floating wind turbine in China
Author
Wang, Yi
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2016
Submitted on
2016-06-09
Pages
37
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger, om det er det rette tidspunkt at udvikle flydende havvind i Kina for at afhjælpe flaskehalse i landets vindsektor. Baggrunden er, at Kina ikke opfyldte sit mål om 5 GW havvind inden udgangen af 2015, og at udbygningen i den 13. femårsplan er blevet bremset på grund af lav elproduktion og høje samlede omkostninger. Projektet kombinerer markeds- og beslutningsanalyser: en mikroanalyse med Porters Five Forces til at belyse styrker og svagheder ved flydende havvind, en makroanalyse med PEST for at identificere muligheder og trusler, og en samlet SWOT-oversigt. Derudover anvendes MCDA (multikriteriel beslutningsanalyse) og forventet værdianalyse til at sammenligne flydende havvind med landvind og konventionel nær-kyst havvind, med inddragelse af interessenter og kriterier for fordele og risici, herunder den økonomiske effekt. Resultaterne viser, at flydende havvind på tværs af kriterier giver de største fordele, især økonomisk, men at en væsentlig teknologisk risiko består. På den baggrund konkluderes, at det endnu ikke er det rette tidspunkt at udrulle flydende havvind i Kina.
This thesis examines whether it is the right time to develop floating offshore wind in China to address bottlenecks in the country’s wind sector. The motivation is that China missed its 5 GW offshore target by the end of 2015 and slowed offshore deployment in the 13th Five‑Year Plan due to low electricity output and high overall costs. The study combines market and decision analyses: a micro‑environment assessment using Porter’s Five Forces to identify strengths and weaknesses of floating offshore wind, a macro‑environment PEST analysis to map opportunities and threats, and an integrated SWOT overview. It then applies multiple‑criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and expected value analysis to compare floating offshore wind with onshore wind and conventional near‑shore offshore wind, incorporating stakeholder perspectives and criteria covering benefits and risks, including economic performance. The results indicate that floating offshore wind offers the greatest overall benefits, particularly economically, but faces a major technology risk. Consequently, the thesis concludes that it is not yet the appropriate time to deploy floating offshore wind in China.
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