Rail Freight in northern Denmark. An analysis of the potential for rail freight.

Jakobsen, Kim

4. term

Transport Engineering, Master

2018

2018-06-08

91

EU-Kommissionen ønsker, at mere gods flyttes fra lastbiler til tog og skib for at sænke udledninger og aflaste vejene. I Hvidbogen fra 2011 er målet, at 50% af alt gods, der transporteres over 300 km, i 2050 skal flyttes multimodalt – altså ved at kombinere flere transportmidler. I Danmark kører jernbanegods næsten kun som transit mellem Tyskland og Sverige, og i Nordjylland har tog haft en meget lille markedsandel. En rapport fra Trafikstyrelsen i 2016 pegede på tre hovedhindringer: omlæsning er dyrt, omlæsning tager tid, og få virksomheder har nok gods til regelmæssigt at fylde et helt godstog. I Nordjylland er der dog introduceret en shuttletog-service, hvor DB Cargo Scandinavia og Aalborg Havn tilbyder, at virksomheder kan booke forsendelser helt ned til 25 ton. Det kan gøre togtransport relevant for mindre og mellemstore virksomheder. Denne undersøgelse vurderer potentialet for jernbanegods i Nordjylland ved at bruge købs- og salgsdata fra Danmarks Statistik samt en interessentanalyse af nordjyske havne med havnespor, DB Cargo Scandinavia og Banedanmark (den statslige forvalter af jernbaneinfrastrukturen). Datagrundlaget for national handel er utilstrækkeligt, fordi der sjældent angives mængder; derfor vurderes potentialet kun for international handel. Metoden isolerer import- og eksportdata for Nordjylland og ser på årlige mængder for hver vare og destination. Det antages, at varer sendes i lige store forsendelser. For at vurdere, hvor mange virksomheder der kan bruge tog ved at samle gods, deles årsmængderne med 12 (månedlig konsolidering) og 52 (ugentlig). Kun forbindelser til lande, der kan nås med jernbane og ligger langt nok væk til, at tog er rentabelt, indgår. Varetype spiller også ind: frisk fisk er sorteret fra eksporten; øvrige varetyper er ikke frasorteret, og resultaterne kan vurderes efter branchegrupper. Analysen peger på et betydeligt potentiale for at flytte gods til og fra Nordjylland over på tog. Interessentanalysen viser dog væsentlige barrierer: I Vendsyssel skulle togdriften fra efteråret 2018 over på ERTMS, et nyt digitalt signalsystem, og det er usikkert, om godsoperatører har eller kan skaffe materiel (lokomotiver/vogne), der kan køre med systemet. Der er også tvivl om elektrificering af Vendsyssel og om der i givet fald vil køre godstog til området. Hvis området reelt afskæres, bliver Aalborg Havn den eneste jernbaneterminal i regionen, hvilket hverken havnene eller DB Cargo Scandinavia ønsker; de foretrækker, at samme godstog kan betjene flere terminaler. Ligesom i resten af landet rammes regionen desuden af afbrydelser i skinnenettet, som kan afskære terminaler fra det internationale net og underminere kundebasen. Kortsigtede løsninger er at sikre gennemkørsel under sporarbejde eller udbygge nettet, så der findes alternative ruter mellem flere steder.

The European Commission wants more freight to move from trucks to rail and sea to cut emissions and ease pressure on roads. In its 2011 White Paper, it set a target that by 2050, 50% of goods traveling more than 300 km should shift via multimodal transport—combining different modes. In Denmark, rail freight is mostly transit between Germany and Sweden, and North Jutland has a particularly small rail share. A 2016 report by the Danish Transport Authority identified three main barriers: transshipment is costly, it takes time, and few companies have enough volume to regularly fill a whole freight train. In North Jutland, a shuttle train service now allows companies to book shipments as small as 25 tons through DB Cargo Scandinavia and Port of Aalborg, potentially opening rail to small and medium-sized firms. This study assesses the rail freight potential in North Jutland using purchase and sales data from Statistics Denmark and a stakeholder analysis of North Jutland ports with rail sidings, DB Cargo Scandinavia, and Banedanmark (the national rail infrastructure manager). The national trade data are inadequate because quantities are rarely reported, so the analysis focuses on international flows. The method isolates North Jutland’s imports and exports by product and destination, aggregated annually, assuming equal-sized shipments. To estimate how many firms could use rail by consolidating goods, annual volumes are divided by 12 (monthly consolidation) and 52 (weekly). Only trade with countries reachable by rail and far enough away for rail to be economical is included. Commodity type matters: fresh fish is excluded from exports; other commodities are kept, and results can be read by industry groups. Findings indicate a substantial potential to shift freight to rail to and from North Jutland. However, the stakeholder analysis reveals significant obstacles: In Vendsyssel, from autumn 2018 train operations were to move to ERTMS, a new digital signaling system, and it was uncertain whether freight operators had or could obtain rolling stock compatible with it. There is also doubt about electrifying Vendsyssel and, if so, whether freight trains would run to the area. If the area were effectively cut off, Port of Aalborg would be the region’s only rail terminal—an outcome neither the ports nor DB Cargo Scandinavia want; they prefer services where the same train can serve multiple terminals. Like the rest of Denmark, the region is also affected by rail network disruptions that can sever terminals from the international network and erode the customer base. Short-term remedies include maintaining through-running during track works or expanding the network to provide alternative routes between more locations.

[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]

godstransport ; godstog ; jernbane ; planlægning ; havne ; multimodal ; kombiterminal ; freight flow

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