Productivity effects of an aging working population in the US
Author
Mortensen, Andreas Vrist Kjeldgård
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2025
Abstract
This thesis examines how demographic change, including a rising share of older individuals, affects productivity in the United States. The core question is: What are the productivity effects of an aging working population in the US? It outlines key transmission mechanisms via human capital, technological adaptability, innovation, and fiscal composition. Using US time-series data for 1960-2019 from FRED, an ARDL approach is applied to identify short- and long-run relationships, testing both linear and potential non-linear patterns. The model estimates indicate no negative long-term impact of aging on productivity over the period studied, while cautioning that more recent data may reveal effects around a turning point. The thesis concludes with policy implications for productivity growth, labor market strategies, and human capital investment, emphasizing the need to tailor measures to the country’s demographic stage and economic structure.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan demografiske ændringer, herunder en stigende andel ældre, påvirker produktiviteten i USA. Det centrale spørgsmål er: Hvad er produktivitetseffekterne af en aldrende arbejdsstyrke i USA? Studiet skitserer transmissionsmekanismer via human kapital, teknologisk omstillingsevne, innovation og den offentlige sektors sammensætning. Med tidsseriedata for 1960-2019 fra FRED anvendes en ARDL-tilgang til at afdække kort- og langsigtede sammenhænge, og både lineære og potentielt ikke-lineære relationer testes. Estimationerne viser ingen negativ langsigtet effekt af aldring på produktiviteten i den undersøgte periode, men peger på, at nyere data kan afsløre effekter omkring et vendepunkt. Afslutningsvis diskuteres implikationer for politikker for produktivitetsvækst, arbejdsmarked og investeringer i human kapital, hvor anbefalinger bør tilpasses landets demografiske fase og økonomiske struktur.
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