A master thesis from Aalborg University
Prediction of Traffic Patterns in Bike Sharing Systems: 🚲
[Prediction of Traffic Patterns in Bike Sharing Systems]
Author(s)
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2022
Submitted on
2022-06-03
Pages
183 pages
Abstract
The aim of this project is to analyse patterns of usage in dock-based bike sharing systems in order to distinguish between different types of stations with the end goal of being able to predict the average daily traffic patterns of stations based on spatial factors in their service areas. The analysis is based on trip data from bike sharing systems in New York City, Chicago, Washington DC, Boston, London, Helsinki, Oslo, and Madrid as well as other data external to the systems. In the analysis, different clustering algorithms are introduced to cluster stations based on the shape of their average daily traffic patterns. It is found that using k-means clustering with five clusters yielded clearly separate types of traffic patterns which are then related to external spatial factors using a logistic regression model. A strong relationship between station type and spatial factors is found for all cities, and variations between the models for different cities are related to differences in commuting culture between cities. Average bike share demand for each station is modelled using a generalised linear model with a logarithmic link function, and coupled with the logistic regression model it is possible to predict average traffic patterns with reasonable precision. Finally, in a case study of the Citi Bike system expansion in autumn 2019, the demand model is used to optimise station placement.
Keywords
Bicycle ; Bike ; Cycle ; Sharing ; Bike Share ; Bike Share System ; Clustering ; Statistical Modelling ; Regression ; Prediction ; Planning ; Mobility ; SDG 11
Documents
Colophon: This page is part of the AAU Student Projects portal, which is run by Aalborg University. Here, you can find and download publicly available bachelor's theses and master's projects from across the university dating from 2008 onwards. Student projects from before 2008 are available in printed form at Aalborg University Library.
If you have any questions about AAU Student Projects or the research registration, dissemination and analysis at Aalborg University, please feel free to contact the VBN team. You can also find more information in the AAU Student Projects FAQs.