Predicting Climate Induced Changes in the Shallow Groundwater: How do Differently Scaled Hydrological Models Impact the Predictions
Author
Eisenbrückner, Luc Taliesin
Term
4. term
Publication year
2020
Pages
68
Abstract
This thesis examines how the spatial scale of hydrological models influences predictions of climate-driven changes in shallow groundwater at a local site in central Jutland. The aim is to assess whether Denmark’s National Water Resources Model can support local assessments by comparing its outputs with those from a regional model and a newly developed, fine-resolution local model. The local model incorporated updated geology and a refined grid and was calibrated to reproduce groundwater heads and their temporal variations as accurately as possible. The three models were then run with future climate scenarios and used in a groundwater flooding risk assessment. The results indicate that the local model predicts larger changes in shallow groundwater and a greater extent of areas exposed to groundwater flooding than both the national and regional models. These differences may be linked to the more detailed geological representation in the local model, but this requires further verification. Overall, the study highlights that model scale and geological detail matter for local climate adaptation assessments.
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan skaleringen af hydrologiske modeller påvirker forudsigelser af klimaændringers betydning for det terrænnære grundvand i et lokalt område i Midtjylland. Formålet er at vurdere, om Danmarks Nationale Vandressourcemodel kan anvendes til lokale vurderinger ved at sammenligne dens resultater med en regional model og en ny, detaljeret lokalmodel. Lokalmodellen blev opbygget med opdateret geologi og et forfinet beregningsgrid og blev kalibreret til at gengive grundvandsspejlets niveauer og variationer så præcist som muligt. De tre modeller blev herefter anvendt til fremtidige klimascenarier og til en risikoanalyse af grundvandsoversvømmelse. Resultaterne viser, at lokalmodellen forudsiger større ændringer i det terrænnære grundvand og større arealer med risiko for grundvandsoversvømmelse end både den nationale og den regionale model. Forskellene kan hænge sammen med den mere detaljerede geologiske beskrivelse i lokalmodellen, men dette kræver yderligere verificering. Samlet peger studiet på, at valg af modelskala og geologisk detaljering har betydning for lokale klimatilpasningsvurderinger.
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