Poland, Hungary, and the war in Ukraine: The case of why Poland and Hungary reacted differently to the war in Ukraine
Author
Nielsen, Mikkel
Term
4. term
Publication year
2022
Abstract
This thesis examines why Poland and Hungary responded differently to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine through a neoclassical realist lens. It is a qualitative, comparative case study that analyzes the intervening variables of leader image and strategic culture, alongside considerations of strategic environment and clarity. The analysis draws on national security strategies and foreign policy documents, leaders’ speeches and statements, and relevant scholarly literature. Empirically, Poland swiftly condemned Russia, advocated tougher sanctions, and supported military aid to Ukraine, whereas Hungary opposed energy sanctions, refused to allow weapons transit, and sought to balance between Russia and the West. The findings indicate that differences in leader images and strategic cultures can account for the divergent responses: in Poland, both leader image and strategic culture view Russia as the principal threat and prioritize balancing against Russian influence in Central and Eastern Europe; in Hungary, the leader image treats Russia as an important partner, and a more pacifist strategic culture constrains involvement in the war. The thesis also discusses the difficulty of disentangling the relative impact of leader image versus strategic culture due to overlap, suggesting these concepts may need further refinement to be clearly distinguished. It considers alternative explanations, including economic dependence on Russian energy, but concludes that leader image and strategic culture provide a persuasive account of why Poland and Hungary reacted differently.
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvorfor Polen og Ungarn reagerede forskelligt på Ruslands invasion af Ukraine i 2022, set gennem en neoklassisk realistisk ramme. Studiet er et kvalitativt, komparativt casestudie, der analyserer de såkaldte intervenierende variable – lederbillede og strategisk kultur – suppleret af overvejelser om strategisk miljø og klarhed. Analysen bygger på nationale sikkerhedsstrategier og udenrigspolitiske dokumenter, lederes taler og udtalelser samt relevant forskningslitteratur. Empirisk beskrives, at Polen tidligt fordømte Rusland, pressede på for hårdere sanktioner og militær støtte til Ukraine, mens Ungarn modsatte sig energisanktioner, afviste våbentransit og balancerede mellem Rusland og Vesten. Fundene peger på, at forskelle i lederbilleder og strategisk kultur kan forklare divergerende svar: I Polen opfatter både lederbillede og strategisk kultur Rusland som den primære trussel og prioriterer at balancere mod russisk indflydelse i Central- og Østeuropa; i Ungarn ser lederbilledet Rusland som en vigtig partner, og en mere pacifistisk strategisk kultur begrænser deltagelse i krigen. Afhandlingen drøfter samtidig, at det er vanskeligt entydigt at adskille den relative betydning af lederbillede og strategisk kultur, da de ofte overlapper, og at begreberne kan have behov for videreudvikling for klarere at kunne differentieres. Den overvejer også alternative forklaringer, herunder økonomisk afhængighed af russisk energi, men konkluderer, at lederbillede og strategisk kultur giver en plausibel forklaring på, hvorfor Polen og Ungarn reagerede forskelligt.
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