NATO-Russia Relations: A Study of the Current Presence in the Baltics
Authors
Jensen, Emilie Hedegaard ; Nielsen, Stephanie Pilgaard
Term
4. term
Publication year
2021
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger sandsynligheden for en russisk eskalation i de baltiske stater i lyset af NATOs beslutning om at styrke sin fremskudte tilstedeværelse. Med et positivistisk udgangspunkt anvendes et kvalitativt casestudie af Baltikum og et dokumentbaseret analysegreb, struktureret af neorealisme (defensiv og offensiv) og neoliberalisme (interdependens og institutionel). Undersøgelsen inddrager institutionelt samarbejde, russisktalende minoriteter, geopolitiske forhold herunder Kaliningrad og Suwalki-korridoren, økonomiske relationer, hybridkrig samt nyere udtalelser fra russiske og NATO-ledere. Analysen peger på, at en hybrid eskalation på kort sigt er mere sandsynlig end en direkte militær konfrontation. Selvom russisktalende minoriteter kan give Moskva motiver, skaber indbyrdes afhængighed og institutioner incitamenter til fredeligt samarbejde og mindsker sandsynligheden for konventionel eskalation, om end staters egeninteresse fortsat holder risikoen i live. I et offensivt neorealistisk perspektiv signalerer Ruslands interesse i Suwalki-korridoren, lederretorik og brug af hybride virkemidler en stræben efter indflydelse og magt; et defensivt neorealistisk blik tolker styrkeposteringer i Kaliningrad og hybride tiltag som sikkerhedssøgende adfærd. Diskussionen placerer dynamikkerne i en bredere kontekst, hvor eskalation vurderes mere plausibel først efter en løsning på Ruslands konflikt med Ukraine, og hvor Rusland aktuelt synes at have andre prioriteter. Samlet er timingen usikker, men eskalation kan ikke udelukkes.
This thesis examines the likelihood of a Russian escalation in the Baltic states in light of NATO’s decision to enhance its forward presence. Adopting a positivist stance, it applies a qualitative case study of the Baltics and a document-based analysis structured by neorealism (defensive and offensive) and neoliberalism (interdependence and institutional). The study considers institutional cooperation, Russian-speaking minorities, geopolitical factors including Kaliningrad and the Suwalki Gap, economic ties, hybrid warfare, and recent statements by Russian and NATO leaders. The analysis suggests that, in the near term, hybrid escalation is more likely than a direct military confrontation. While the presence of Russian-speaking minorities may give Moscow motives, interdependence and institutions create incentives for peaceful cooperation, reducing the probability of conventional escalation even as state self-interest keeps risks alive. From an offensive neorealist view, Russia’s interest in the Suwalki Gap, leadership rhetoric, and the use of hybrid tactics indicate a pursuit of influence and power; a defensive neorealist lens interprets force postures in Kaliningrad and hybrid measures as security-seeking behavior. The discussion situates these dynamics in a wider context, arguing that escalation may be more plausible only after Russia resolves its dispute with Ukraine and noting that Russia currently appears focused elsewhere. Overall, the timing is uncertain, but escalation cannot be ruled out.
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Keywords
nato ; rusland ; baltikum ; neorealisme ; neoliberalisme ; estland ; letland ; litauen
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