Mutually hurting, or mutually thriving - The Russo-Japanese conflict of the Kuril Islands
Author
Gardner, Hannah-Jean
Term
4. term
Publication year
2020
Submitted on
2020-05-29
Abstract
The territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands has remained unresolved since World War II, and no peace treaty between Japan and Russia has been concluded. This thesis examines how timing shapes Japan’s pursuit of a settlement under Shinzo Abe’s administrations (2007–2008 and 2013–2019). Drawing on William Zartman’s ripeness theory and on neoclassical realism, which explains how foreign policy emerges from systemic and domestic incentives rooted in national interests, it conducts a qualitative analysis of Japan’s official foreign and defense policy documents, notably the Diplomatic Bluebook and Defense of Japan. Through a series of propositions, the analysis assesses objective and subjective elements to evaluate whether Japan views the situation as a mutually hurting stalemate or a mutually enticing opportunity. The findings indicate that Abe’s governments adopted a proactive posture and saw the timing as favorable for renewed negotiations with Russia, potentially opening a path toward resolving the dispute. However, because the study is grounded in the Japanese perspective, it cautions that this alone is insufficient to determine whether the conflict is truly ripe for resolution.
Kuriler-striden mellem Japan og Rusland har stået uløst siden Anden Verdenskrig, og et egentligt fredsforlig mangler stadig. Specialet undersøger, hvordan timing påvirker Japans bestræbelser på at løse konflikten under Shinzo Abes regeringsperioder (2007-2008 og 2013-2019). Med udgangspunkt i William Zartmans ripeness-teori om det modne øjeblik og neoklassisk realisme, som forklarer, hvordan udenrigspolitik formes af internationale og indenrigspolitiske incitamenter forankret i nationale interesser, gennemføres en kvalitativ dokumentanalyse af de officielle udenrigs- og forsvarspolitiske publikationsrækker Diplomatic Bluebook og Defense of Japan. Analysen opstiller og afprøver en række propositioner om objektive og subjektive forhold for at vurdere, om Japan opfatter situationen som et gensidigt sårende dødvande eller en gensidigt tillokkende mulighed. Fundene peger på, at Abe-administrationerne førte en proaktiv linje og vurderede, at timingen var gunstig for at intensivere forhandlingerne med Rusland, hvilket potentielt kunne bane vej for en afslutning på tvisten. Specialet understreger dog, at vurderingen bygger på det japanske perspektiv alene og derfor ikke i sig selv kan fastslå, om konflikten faktisk er moden til løsning.
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Keywords