Maritime Safety Performance During Geopolitical Disruptions: Modeling the Shift from Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope
Author
Papa, Eleni
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2026
Submitted on
2026-05-31
Pages
59
Abstract
Recent geopolitical instability in the Red Sea region has disrupted global shipping, forcing carriers to reconsider whether to sail via the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Good Hope. This thesis presents a Bayesian Network (a probabilistic model that shows how different factors influence each other) to assess and compare the operational risk of these two routing options. The model brings together geopolitical, operational, environmental, economic, and human factors. It was built in the GeNIe Modeler software and evaluated using representative operational scenarios and sensitivity analyses, which test how results change when assumptions or inputs vary. The findings show that neither route is currently risk-free. The framework is not designed to predict exact outcomes, but to provide simplified operational risk profiles that support maritime risk assessment and decision-making under uncertainty. The study also highlights the need to integrate safety, security, operational, and human-factor perspectives in maritime risk assessment methods.
Den seneste geopolitiske ustabilitet i Rødehavsregionen har forstyrret global skibsfart og tvunget rederier til at gentænke valget mellem Suezkanalen og ruten om Kap det Gode Håb. Denne afhandling præsenterer et bayesiansk netværk (en sandsynlighedsmodel, der viser, hvordan forskellige faktorer påvirker hinanden) til at vurdere og sammenligne den operationelle risiko ved de to rutevalg. Modellen samler geopolitiske, operationelle, miljømæssige, økonomiske og menneskelige faktorer. Den er udviklet i softwaren GeNIe Modeler og testet gennem repræsentative drifts-scenarier og følsomhedsanalyser, hvor man undersøger, hvordan resultaterne ændrer sig, når antagelser eller input varieres. Resultaterne viser, at ingen af ruterne i øjeblikket er risikofri. Formålet er ikke at forudsige præcise udfald, men at levere forenklede risikoprofiler, der kan støtte maritime risikovurderinger og driftsbeslutninger under usikkerhed. Studiet understreger samtidig vigtigheden af at kombinere perspektiver fra sikkerhed (safety), sikring (security), drift og menneskelige faktorer i maritime risikovurderingsmetoder.
[This apstract has been rewritten with the help of AI based on the project's original abstract]