Making democracy perform: Why Honduran youth don’t trust in democratic institutions
Author
Thorlund, Michael
Term
4. term
Publication year
2016
Submitted on
2016-07-29
Pages
60
Abstract
Hvorfor har unge i Honduras lav tillid til demokratiske institutioner? Dette speciale undersøger årsagerne til faldende institutionel tillid blandt 15-24-årige ved hjælp af et kausalt forskningsdesign, der stiller to forklaringer over for hinanden: demokratisk performance og civisk kultur. Der afledes to hypoteser, som testes med en mixed methods-tilgang: aggregerede indikatorer fra holdningsundersøgelser indsamlet 2004-2015, suppleret af en gennemgang af empirisk litteratur om nyere udviklinger i Honduras for at styrke den interne validitet. Analysen konkluderer, at svag politisk performance driver mistillid: forværret borgertryghed, stigende korruption og en udbredt opfattelse af, at det politiske system ikke kan håndtere problemerne, er de vigtigste forklaringer. Derimod viser opfattelser af økonomisk performance, herunder servicelevering, jobmuligheder og den personlige økonomi, ingen sammenhæng med tillid, og mål for civilt engagement og social kapital viser heller ingen empirisk forbindelse. Studiet bidrager til den voksende forskning i lav demokratisk tillid i Latinamerika og viser værdien af at fokusere på specifikke befolkningsgrupper; det demonstrerer, at analyser af demokratisk tillid i udviklingskontekster både er mulige og nødvendige.
Why do young people in Honduras have low trust in democratic institutions? This thesis examines the roots of declining institutional trust among 15-24-year-olds through a causal research design that contrasts two explanations: democratic performance and civic culture. Two hypotheses derived from these frames are tested using a mixed-methods approach: aggregated indicators from public opinion surveys collected between 2004 and 2015, complemented by a review of empirical literature on recent developments in Honduras to reinforce internal validity. The analysis concludes that weak political performance drives distrust: worsening citizen security, rising corruption, and a widespread perception that the political system cannot address these problems are the main determinants. By contrast, perceptions of economic performance, including service delivery, employment opportunities, and personal economic conditions, show no correlation with trust, and measures of civic engagement and social capital display no empirical association. The study contributes to growing research on low democratic trust in Latin America and shows the value of focusing on specific population subgroups, demonstrating that analyzing democratic trust in developing contexts is both feasible and necessary.
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