A master thesis from Aalborg University
Long term planning of 10-20 kV modern Danish distribution system through a probabilistic approach
Author(s)
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2010
Submitted on
2010-06-02
Pages
88 pages
Abstract
SYNOPSIS: In this project an analysis of the optimum cables size for a cable in the 10-20/50-60 kV network is done. Two approaches; the deterministic and the probabilistic and are described and compared. A probabilistic model for of the residence load is based on hourly meter data from SydEnergi and a model for the other consumer categories is based on data from Elforbrugspanel is made together with a model for a wind turbine is based on Weibull distribution. The models are used in an analysis of the optimum cable size for the deterministic and the probabilistic (Monte Carlo) where the results are compared. Finally a study case on a radial feeder in ESV network is done. The analysis and the study case have proven that there is a difference in the result of the deterministic and probabilistic approach. It is more Cost effective to use the probabilistic approach than the deterministic approach.
SYNOPSIS: In this project an analysis of the optimum cables size for a cable in the 10-20/50-60 kV network is done. Two approaches; the deterministic and the probabilistic and are described and compared. A probabilistic model for of the residence load is based on hourly meter data from SydEnergi and a model for the other consumer categories is based on data from Elforbrugspanel is made together with a model for a wind turbine is based on Weibull distribution. The models are used in an analysis of the optimum cable size for the deterministic and the probabilistic (Monte Carlo) where the results are compared. Finally a study case on a radial feeder in ESV network is done. The analysis and the study case have proven that there is a difference in the result of the deterministic and probabilistic approach. It is more Cost effective to use the probabilistic approach than the deterministic approach.
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