Lithuanian Least-Cost Heating Strategy
Translated title
Opvarmningsstrategi for Litauen
Author
Vaicaityte, Agne
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2015
Submitted on
2015-06-03
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger den billigste måde at opvarme boliger i Litauen i fremtidens energisystem: hvor langt det kan betale sig at spare varme frem for at producere mere. Baggrunden er en energiineffektiv bygningsmasse, store varmeregninger og afhængighed af importeret naturgas, som skaber usikkerhed om forsyningen. Først opstilles en model for Litauens energisystem i 2030 med særligt fokus på opvarmningssektoren og et skifte fra naturgas til lokal biomasse (fx træ og andre plantebaserede brændsler). Dernæst vurderes varmebesparelser i både etageejendomme og enfamiliehuse. Et nøglepunkt er, at investeringsomkostningerne varierer markant afhængigt af, om der er tale om energiforbedringer i eksisterende bygninger eller ekstra investeringer i nybyggeri. For eksisterende bygninger har det også stor betydning, om tiltaget udføres som en selvstændig energirenovering eller som en del af en renovering, der alligevel skulle gennemføres. Ved at sammenligne marginale omkostninger ved at producere én ekstra enhed varme med marginale omkostninger ved at spare den samme enhed, konkluderes det, at den billigste løsning for etageejendomme er at reducere behovet for rumopvarmning til 44–51 % af det nuværende niveau. For enfamiliehuse kræves der væsentligt større indsatser for at bringe varmeforbruget ned. Investeringer bør derfor først og fremmest målrettes nybyggeri og bygninger, der under alle omstændigheder skal renoveres. Afhandlingen undersøger også barrierer for vellykket renovering, især i etageejendomme. En analyse af privatøkonomien viser, at renoveringer kan blive en betydelig byrde for boligejere uden økonomisk støtte. En kort interessentanalyse og interview med centrale aktører peger på, at boligejernes motivation er afgørende, fordi de har størst indflydelse. Ud over juridiske og organisatoriske forhindringer fremhæves mangel på håndværkere som en af de mest betydelige udfordringer for at få renoveret den litauiske bygningsmasse. Afhandlingen afsluttes med anbefalinger til at håndtere disse barrierer.
This thesis examines the cheapest way to heat homes in Lithuania’s future energy system: how far it pays to save heat rather than produce more. The context is an energy-inefficient building stock, high heating bills, and dependence on imported natural gas, which undermines supply security. First, it models Lithuania’s 2030 energy system with a focus on the heating sector and a shift from natural gas to local biomass (such as wood and other plant-based fuels). Second, it assesses heat-saving measures in both apartment blocks and single-family houses. A key point is that investment costs differ greatly depending on whether measures are installed in existing buildings or added to new builds. For existing buildings, costs also depend on whether the work is a stand-alone energy retrofit or part of a renovation that would happen anyway. By comparing the marginal cost of producing one more unit of heat with the marginal cost of saving that unit (for example through insulation and better windows), the study concludes that for apartment blocks the least-cost solution is to cut space-heating demand to 44–51% of today’s level. For single-family houses, much deeper or more demanding efforts are needed to lower heat demand. Investments should primarily target new buildings and projects that are already being renovated. The thesis also examines barriers to successful building renovation, focusing on apartment blocks. An analysis of private expenditures shows that renovation can impose a significant financial burden on homeowners without financial support. A brief stakeholder analysis and interviews with key actors indicate that homeowner motivation is crucial, as they have the greatest influence. Besides legal and organizational obstacles, a shortage of skilled craftsmen is identified as a major bottleneck for renovating Lithuania’s building stock. The thesis ends with recommendations to address these issues.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]
Documents