Is the JCPOA-2015 deal a solution to Iran's nuclear crisis
Author
Hamid, Md Abdul
Term
4. term
Publication year
2021
Submitted on
2021-05-31
Pages
46
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger, om JCPOA-2015 kan fungere som en løsning på Irans atomkrise. Med udgangspunkt i forhandlingernes forløb fra de tidlige EU3-initiativer og USA’s indtræden i 2012 til den endelige aftale i 2015 analyserer studiet både processens baggrund og de konkrete resultater, herunder begrænsninger af centrifuger, reduktion af uranlagre, en berigelseskappe på 3,67 %, styrket IAEA-inspektion og gradvis sanktionslempelse. Afhandlingen er baseret på kvalitative, sekundære kilder og anvender en teoretisk ramme inspireret af international politik (bl.a. realisme og liberalisme) samt IAEA’s standarder for at vurdere aftalens meritter og svagheder. Analysen er struktureret omkring tre delspørgsmål: baggrunden for forhandlingerne, hvorvidt perioden 2013–2015 var en succes eller fiasko, og om aftalen reelt fejlede under præsident Trumps periode, hvor USA trak sig i 2018. Ved at sammenholde historiske udviklinger, parternes holdninger og forskeres modstridende vurderinger giver afhandlingen en afbalanceret fremstilling af både fordele og mangler ved JCPOA-2015, herunder de politiske motiver hos Obama- og Trump-administrationerne. Da dette uddrag ikke indeholder den endelige konklusion, præsenteres først og fremmest en nuanceret vurdering af aftalens effektivitet og skrøbelighed for fred og stabilitet i Mellemøsten og internationalt.
This thesis examines whether the JCPOA-2015 can serve as a solution to Iran’s nuclear crisis. Tracing the negotiations from early EU3 efforts and U.S. participation in 2012 to the 2015 agreement, it analyzes both the background and concrete outcomes, including limits on centrifuges, reductions in uranium stockpiles, a 3.67% enrichment cap, enhanced IAEA access, and phased sanctions relief. The study relies on qualitative, secondary sources and applies an international relations framework (including realist and liberal perspectives) alongside IAEA standards to assess the deal’s merits and shortcomings. The analysis is structured around three sub-questions: the background to the talks, whether the 2013–2015 process was a success or failure, and whether the deal effectively failed during President Trump’s tenure, when the United States withdrew in 2018. By integrating historical developments, the parties’ positions, and contrasting expert opinions, the thesis offers a balanced account of JCPOA-2015’s strengths and weaknesses, including the political rationales of the Obama and Trump administrations. As the final verdict is not provided in this excerpt, the focus is on a nuanced appraisal of the agreement’s effectiveness and fragility for regional and global stability.
[This summary has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project (PDF)]
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