Investigating the Possibility for an International Regime on Climate Refugees
Author
Jensen, Tina Nybo
Term
4. term
Publication year
2012
Pages
65
Abstract
Dette studie undersøger, om det internationale samfund kan skabe et fælles sæt regler og institutioner — et internationalt regime — til at håndtere klimaflygtninge, dvs. mennesker, der tvinges til at flytte på grund af havniveaustigning, oversvømmelser, tørke og andre klimaeffekter. Tidlige globale indsatser fokuserede på afbødning, som for eksempel Kyoto-protokollen, men det har ikke været tilstrækkeligt i sig selv. I takt med at klimaforandringerne skrider frem, er der behov for tilpasningsstrategier, så vi kan leve med både langsomme ændringer og pludselige naturfarer. Nogle skøn peger på, at 150–200 millioner mennesker kan blive fordrevet frem mod 2050. For at belyse, hvad der gør et regime mere eller mindre sandsynligt, ser specialet på to forhold: den nuværende viden om klimaflygtninge og magtforholdene mellem stater. Det anvender Dimitrovs Disaggregation of Knowledge (et rammeværk for, hvordan politikrelevant viden er organiseret og anvendes) samt to teorier i international politik: realisme (der vægter staters magt og interesser) og liberal institutionalisme (der fremhæver samarbejde gennem institutioner). Undersøgelsen er et kvalitativt casestudie, der gennemgår eksisterende viden, betydningen af usikkerhed og hvordan interesser og indflydelse præger forhandlinger. Hovedkonklusionen er, at udsigterne for et omfattende globalt regime om klimaflygtninge netop nu er meget små. Fordi meget af evidensen handler om fremtiden og bygger på fremskrivninger, er mange stater tilbageholdende med at handle nu. Desuden forventes de mest berørte lande ofte at være blandt de mindst magtfulde, hvilket gør en global aftale sværere. Specialet foreslår derfor mere snævre eller kompromisbaserede skridt mod samarbejde, hvor regionale regimer sandsynligvis er mere gennemførlige og effektive på kort sigt. Det peger også på behovet for mere forskning i sammenhængen mellem governance og tilpasningskapacitet samt for at inddrage aktører med specialiseret viden, herunder offentligt-private partnerskaber og NGO'er.
This study examines whether the international community can create a shared set of rules and institutions — an international regime — to address climate refugees, that is, people forced to move because of sea-level rise, floods, droughts, and other climate impacts. Early global efforts focused on mitigation, such as the Kyoto Protocol, but these have not been sufficient on their own. As climate change progresses, adaptation strategies are needed to live with both slow, gradual changes and sudden hazards. Some estimates suggest that by 2050, 150–200 million people could be displaced. To explore what makes a regime more or less likely, the thesis looks at two things: the current state of knowledge about climate refugees and the power relations among states. It applies Dimitrov’s Disaggregation of Knowledge (a framework for how policy-relevant knowledge is organized and used) and two international relations approaches, Realism (which emphasizes state power and interests) and Liberal Institutionalism (which emphasizes cooperation through institutions). The research is a qualitative case study that reviews existing evidence, the implications of uncertainty, and how interests and influence shape negotiations. The main finding is that, at present, the prospects for a comprehensive global regime on climate refugees are very small. Because much of the evidence concerns the future and relies on projections, many states are reluctant to act now. In addition, countries likely to be most affected tend to be among the least powerful, which makes a global agreement harder to achieve. The thesis suggests pursuing narrower or compromise-based steps toward cooperation, with regional regimes probably more feasible and effective in the near term. It also calls for more research on how governance relates to adaptation capacity, and for involving actors with specialized knowledge, including public–private partnerships and NGOs.
[This abstract was generated with the help of AI]
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