Implementation of 4-6 GW of Power to X in Denmark by 2030
Author
Sångren, Clara Christine
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2022
Abstract
Specialet undersøger, hvordan implementeringen af 4–6 GW Power-to-X (PtX) i Danmark frem mod 2030 påvirker energisystemet, og hvilke virkemidler der er nødvendige for en succesfuld udrulning. Med Smart energisystem som ramme er der gennemført en energisystemanalyse i EnergyPLAN med fire scenarier: uden PtX, 4 GW, 6 GW samt et scenarie rettet mod 70% CO2-reduktion i 2030. Resultaterne viser, at 4–6 GW PtX kræver en betydelig udbygning af vedvarende energi, svarende til ca. 20–32 TWh ekstra RE om året, og at udskiftning af olie i transport kan reducere energisektorens CO2-udledning med op til 24%, forudsat fleksibel drift, der primært anvender overskydende el fra fluktuerende kilder. Implementeringen er forbundet med høje systemomkostninger, men PtX kan øge fleksibiliteten og forbedre udnyttelsen af vedvarende energi. En anden analyse sammenligner eksisterede planer og strategier med den politiske aftale om 4–6 GW PtX og opstiller et overblik over centrale initiativer på bl.a. regulering, støtteordninger, infrastruktur og forskning. Disse drøftes med henblik på at fremkomme med anbefalinger til, hvilke tiltag der bør prioriteres for at realisere målsætningen.
This thesis examines the impacts of integrating 4–6 GW of Power-to-X (PtX) in Denmark by 2030 and identifies which measures are needed for successful implementation. Using the Smart Energy System framework, an energy system analysis is conducted in EnergyPLAN across four scenarios: no PtX, 4 GW, 6 GW, and a scenario aimed at achieving a 70% CO2 reduction by 2030. The results indicate that 4–6 GW of PtX requires a substantial expansion of renewables, approximately 20–32 TWh of additional RE per year, and that replacing oil in transport can cut energy-sector CO2 emissions by up to 24% when operated flexibly to primarily utilize excess electricity from fluctuating sources. While implementation entails high system costs, PtX can increase system flexibility and improve the integration of renewable energy. A second analysis reviews published roadmaps and strategies against the political agreement targeting 4–6 GW PtX, providing an overview of key initiatives in regulation, subsidy schemes, infrastructure, and R&D. These are discussed to develop recommendations on which actions should be prioritized to achieve the target.
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