Impact of Exit Configuration on Evacuation Efficiency in Outdoor Music Festivals
Author
Mitrosz, Rafal
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2026
Submitted on
2026-06-01
Pages
60
Abstract
This thesis examines how exit configuration—specifically the number, width, placement of exits and their interactions—affects evacuation efficiency at outdoor music festivals. The aim is to determine which parameters most strongly influence evacuation time and crowding and to translate these insights into practical guidance for safer festival layouts. The study employs agent-based simulations in Pathfinder combined with a structured Design of Experiments (DOE), Response Surface Methodology (RSM), and Monte Carlo simulation to map relationships between exit parameters and evacuation performance. Regression-based response surfaces are used to model egress time as a function of exit characteristics, while global sensitivity analysis ranks the most influential factors. Uncertainty in crowd behavior is explicitly accounted for to assess model robustness and provide confidence intervals for predicted evacuation times. The work also compares single versus multiple-exit scenarios and develops simple functional relationships (including hyperbolic and logarithmic forms) between exit width and egress time to support optimization. As final quantitative results are not included in the excerpt, the study is expected to identify exit configurations that mitigate bottlenecks and reduce evacuation time, offering data-driven recommendations for the planning and sizing of exit systems at large outdoor events.
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan udgangskonfigurationen – antal, bredde, placering og deres indbyrdes relationer – påvirker evakueringseffektiviteten ved udendørs musikfestivaler. Formålet er at identificere, hvilke parametre der mest påvirker evakueringstid og trængsel, og at omsætte den viden til praktiske anbefalinger for et sikrere design af festivalområder. Studiet anvender agentbaserede simuleringer i Pathfinder kombineret med et systematisk forsøgsdesign (DOE), responsoverflademetode (RSM) og Monte Carlo-simulering for at afdække sammenhænge mellem udgangsparametre og evakueringsydelse. Regressionsbaserede responsoverflader anvendes til at beskrive egress-tider som funktion af udgangsforhold, og en global følsomhedsanalyse bruges til at rangordne de mest indflydelsesrige faktorer. Usikkerhed i menneskelig adfærd indarbejdes for at vurdere modellens robusthed og give konfidensintervaller for forudsagte evakueringstider. Arbejdet omfatter også sammenligning af scenarier med én versus flere udgange samt udvikling af enkle funktionssammenhænge (bl.a. hyperbolske og logaritmiske) mellem udgangsbredde og egress-tid for at understøtte optimering. Da de endelige resultater ikke er gengivet i uddraget, forventes studiet at udpege de udgangskonfigurationer, der bedst reducerer flaskehalse og evakueringstid, og at levere datadrevne anbefalinger til planlægning og dimensionering af festivalers udgangssystemer.
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