Great Power Competition in the Arctic? - A Comparative Analysis of China's, Russia's and the US' Arctic Policy
Author
Olsen, Martin Brochstedt
Term
4. term
Publication year
2019
Pages
68
Abstract
Against the backdrop of growing attention to the Arctic, this thesis analyzes how systemic and domestic factors shape the Arctic policies of China, Russia, and the United States, and what this implies for the region's geopolitics. Grounded in neoclassical realism and using a comparative case study design, it examines the distribution of power (foreign policy orientation, economic strength, military capabilities and the Arctic institutional framework) and domestic drivers (elite perceptions as well as commercial interests and resource needs. The analysis finds that all three dimensions influence policy: China adopts a confident yet cautious approach; Russia pursues a very active Arctic policy to revive its economy and reinforce great-power status; the US has been hesitant since 2013 but is increasing its presence to counter Russia and China. Elite perceptions diverge, with US actors viewing the Arctic mainly through a security lens, while Chinese and Russian elites frame it as an opportunity, and commercial and resource considerations matter more for China and Russia than for the US. Across three future scenarios, the study concludes that tensions are likely to rise, but incentives for cooperation remain stronger than for conflict, making continued, if more strained, collaboration the most probable outcome.
Med afsæt i den stigende opmærksomhed på Arktis analyserer specialet, hvordan systemiske og indenrigspolitiske forhold former Kinas, Ruslands og USA's Arktis-politik, og hvilke følger det kan få for regionens geopolitiske udvikling. Teoretisk bygger studiet på neoklassisk realisme og anvender et komparativt casestudie, der undersøger fordelingen af magt (udenrigspolitisk kurs, økonomisk styrke, militære kapaciteter og Arktis' institutionelle rammer) samt hjemlige drivkræfter (elitedes opfattelser og kommercielle interesser samt ressourcebehov). Analysen viser, at alle tre dimensioner påvirker politikken: Kina agerer selvsikkert, men forsigtigt; Rusland fører en meget aktiv Arktis-politik for at genoplive økonomien og styrke sin stormagtsstatus; USA har siden 2013 været tøvende, men øger sin tilstedeværelse for at modvirke Rusland og Kina. Eliternes opfattelser divergerer, idet USA primært ser Arktis gennem et sikkerhedspolitisk prisme, mens Kina og Rusland betoner muligheder, og kommercielle og ressourcemæssige hensyn vejer tungere for Kina og Rusland end for USA. Med afsæt i tre fremtidsscenarier konkluderer studiet, at spændingerne sandsynligvis vil stige, men at incitamenterne til samarbejde fortsat overstiger gevinsten ved konflikt, hvilket gør fortsat, om end mere anstrengt, samarbejde mest sandsynligt.
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