Geopolitical and Ideological Rivalry in the Middle East: A contribution to the development of the political realist tradition in the 21st century
Author
Ferretti, Victor Andreas
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2021
Submitted on
2021-02-01
Pages
59
Abstract
This thesis examines the geopolitical and ideological rivalry between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran as a case to advance the political realist tradition. It assesses whether neoclassical realism—combining systemic drivers such as regional multipolarity and power asymmetries with domestic factors including ruling ideology, state structure, and ethno-national and religious composition—offers a more comprehensive account of foreign policy and grand strategy than purely structural theories. Methodologically, it uses a deductive case analysis to test neoclassical realism’s explanatory power in the Saudi–Iranian rivalry. The analysis indicates that geopolitical competition predates the 1979 Iranian Revolution, but that the revolution significantly intensified the rivalry by adding ideological and sectarian dimensions. Western involvement and the 2010–2011 Arab Spring further aggravated the struggle for regional primacy. The rivalry largely manifests as a regional “Cold War” through proxy and third-country conflicts, which deepen and prolong regional conflicts and humanitarian crises.
Denne afhandling undersøger den geopolitiske og ideologiske rivalisering mellem Kongeriget Saudi-Arabien og Den Islamiske Republik Iran som en case til at videreudvikle den politiske realistiske tradition. Formålet er at vurdere, om neoklassisk realisme – der kombinerer systemiske faktorer som regional multipolaritet og magtbalancer med indenlandske forhold som regimeideologi, statsstruktur samt etno-national og religiøs sammensætning – giver en mere dækkende forklaring på staters udenrigspolitik og grand strategy end rent strukturelle tilgange. Metodisk anvendes en deduktiv caseanalyse, der tester neoklassisk realismes forklaringskraft på rivaliteten mellem Saudi-Arabien og Iran. Analysen peger på, at den geopolitiske konkurrence er ældre end den iranske revolution i 1979, men at revolutionen markant intensiverede striden ved at tilføre ideologiske og sekteriske dimensioner. Yderligere forværringer knyttes til vestlig indblanding og til Arabiske Forårs oprør i 2010–2011, der udvidede rum for indgreb og rivaliserende alliancer. Rivaliteten udspiller sig primært som en regional “kold krig” gennem tredjelandskonflikter, hvilket bidrager til at forstærke og forlænge regionale konflikter og humanitære kriser.
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Keywords
Saudi Arabia ; Iran ; Geopolitics ; Ideology ; Political realism ; Neoclassical Realism ; Rivalry ; Power ; Soft power ; Sectarianism ; Nationalism