Fundamentals of Egress Simulation: A Practical Exploration Through Thunderhead Engineering Pathfinder
Author
Panditha, Shaminda Pushpa Kumara
Term
4. term
Education
Publication year
2025
Submitted on
2025-05-05
Abstract
Dette speciale undersøger grundlæggende principper for udrymningssimulation gennem en praktisk afprøvning af Thunderhead Engineering Pathfinder. Baggrunden er øget kompleksitet i byggerier og tætte menneskemængder samt erfaringer fra hændelser som Grenfell Tower-branden og skiftet fra manuelle SFPE-beregninger til performance-baseret egress-modellering. Arbejdet placerer egress i en risiko- og sikkerhedsmæssig kontekst og gennemgår centrale begreber (farekilde, risiko, fare og beredskabets livscyklus), state-of-the-art inden for egress, agentbaseret og mikroskopisk modellering samt relevante standarder. Det centrale forskningsspørgsmål er, hvordan agentbaserede fundamenter, implementeret i Pathfinder, kan anvendes til at modellere, evaluere og verificere udrymningsydelse. Metodisk kombineres litteraturgennemgang med modelopbygning i Pathfinder, der beskriver bevægelsesrum, beboer/brugeres profiler og adfærd, definerer egress-præstationsindikatorer og inddrager farepræsentation. For at vurdere troværdighed anvendes IMO’s ramme for verifikation og validering (komponent-, funktions-, kvalitativ og kvantitativ) ved at simulere IMO-testscenarier i Pathfinder og benchmarke mod sammenlignelige scenarier fra AnyLogic (Zhang m.fl., 2022). Der skitseres desuden følsomhedsanalyse med Monte Carlo for at undersøge parameterusikkerhed. Dette uddrag indeholder ikke de detaljerede resultater, men formålet er at vise, hvordan Pathfinder kan understøtte stringent, performance-baseret evakueringsanalyse gennem systematisk verifikation, validering og benchmarking.
This thesis examines the fundamentals of egress (evacuation) simulation through a practical exploration of Thunderhead Engineering’s Pathfinder. Motivated by increasing structural complexity, dense occupancies, lessons from events such as the Grenfell Tower fire, and the shift from manual SFPE calculations to performance-based egress modeling, the work situates egress within a risk and safety context and reviews key concepts (hazard, risk, danger and the emergency management cycle), the state of the art in egress, agent-based microscopic models, and relevant standards. The central research question asks how agent-based egress simulation fundamentals, implemented in Pathfinder, can be used to model, evaluate, and verify evacuation performance. The methodology combines a literature review with model development in Pathfinder that represents movement spaces, occupant profiles and behaviors, defines egress performance indicators, and incorporates hazard representation. To assess credibility, the study applies the International Maritime Organization’s framework for verification and validation (component, functional, qualitative, and quantitative) by simulating IMO test scenarios in Pathfinder and benchmarking against comparable scenarios reported for AnyLogic (Zhang et al., 2022). Sensitivity testing using Monte Carlo is outlined to explore parameter uncertainty. Although detailed findings are not included in this excerpt, the thesis aims to demonstrate how Pathfinder can support rigorous, performance-based evacuation analysis through transparent verification, validation, and benchmarking.
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