Ex ante evaluation of Grupa LOTOS' Residue Upgrading Project
Translated title
Ex ante evaluering af restproduktopgraderingsprojekt hos Grupa LOTOS
Author
Tarasiewicz, Maja Ewa
Term
10. term
Education
Publication year
2005
Pages
78
Abstract
This thesis conducts an ex-ante evaluation of Grupa LOTOS’ Residue Upgrading Project (RUP) to assess its likely success. The evaluation uses the Logical Framework Approach (LFA) as the main tool and appraises the project’s design against the five evaluation criteria: relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, impact, and sustainability. The work is situated in the European context where oil remains central to energy supply and tightening fuel-quality regulations, including limits on sulphur, aim to reduce air pollutants and environmental pressures. As implementation had not yet occurred, the analysis relies primarily on forecasts and forward-looking assessments rather than realized outcomes. On this basis, the assessment indicates that the RUP is likely to succeed and that stay-in-business environmental projects in the refining sector can also be profitable investments, while acknowledging the assumptions and uncertainties inherent to an ex-ante approach.
Denne afhandling foretager en ex ante-evaluering af Grupa LOTOS’ Residue Upgrading Project (RUP) for at vurdere projektets sandsynlige succes. Evalueringen anvender Logical Framework Approach (LFA) som hovedværktøj og vurderer projektets design ud fra de fem evalueringskriterier: relevans, effektivitet, målopfyldelse (effectiveness), indvirkning (impact) og bæredygtighed. Arbejdet er forankret i den europæiske energikontekst, hvor olie fortsat dominerer, og hvor skærpede krav til brændstofkvalitet, herunder lavere svovlindhold, skal reducere luftforurening og miljøpåvirkninger. Da implementeringen endnu ikke var gennemført, bygger analysen primært på prognoser og fremadrettede vurderinger frem for realiserede resultater. På dette grundlag peger vurderingen på, at RUP sandsynligvis vil være succesfuldt, og at såkaldte stay-in-business miljøprojekter i raffinaderisektoren også kan være rentable investeringer, samtidig med at afhandlingen tydeliggør forudsætninger og usikkerheder, der følger af en ex ante-tilgang.
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