EU's climate targets and Italy's coal phase-out in the power sector: investigating ambitions and implementation in practice
Author
Costanzo, Giuseppe
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2020
Submitted on
2020-09-03
Pages
62
Abstract
Dette speciale undersøger, hvordan Italiens planlagte udfasning af kul i elsektoren inden udgangen af 2025 skrider frem, og i hvilken grad implementeringen er på linje med den intention, regeringen lagde i den nationale energistrategi fra 2017 og den nationale energi- og klimaplan (NECP). I lyset af Paris-aftalen, IPCC’s 2018-rapport om 1,5 grader og EU’s arbejde med en skærpelse af 2030-målene og en klimaneutral økonomi, analyserer specialet status for den italienske kuludfasning og sammenholder den med den oprindelige planlægning, herunder planerne om at erstatte kulkapacitet med vedvarende energi, ny gaskapacitet, lagring og netinvesteringer samt centrale projekter som Tyrrhenian Link og løsninger i Sardinien. Gennem en sammenlignende gennemgang af centrale planer, godkendelser og infrastrukturspor fremgår det, at investeringsforsinkelser, administrativt bureaukrati, stagnerende regulatoriske reformer og modstand fra visse aktører skubber den faktiske gennemførsel væk fra det forudsatte forløb i NECP, hvilket risikerer at svække klimaindsatsen. Specialet drøfter desuden usikkerheder omkring netudbygning, udfordringer for udbygning af sol og vind samt risikoen for teknologisk lock-in og potentielle strandede aktiver ved ny gaskapacitet, og afslutter med anbefalinger til beslutningstagere.
This thesis examines how Italy’s planned phase-out of coal in electricity generation by the end of 2025 is progressing and the extent to which implementation aligns with the intentions set out in the 2017 National Energy Strategy and the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). Framed by the Paris Agreement, the IPCC’s 2018 1.5-degree report, and the EU’s move toward stronger 2030 targets and climate neutrality, the study takes stock of Italy’s coal phase-out and compares on-the-ground developments with the original implementation pathway, including plans to replace coal capacity with renewables, new gas capacity, storage, and grid investments, as well as key projects such as the Tyrrhenian Link and options for Sardinia. Through a comparative review of core plans, authorizations, and infrastructure timelines, it emerges that investment delays, administrative red tape, stagnating regulatory reforms, and resistance from some stakeholders are pushing actual implementation away from what the government set out in the NECP, risking a less incisive climate action. The thesis also discusses uncertainties around grid expansion, challenges to scaling solar and wind, and risks of technology lock-in and stranded assets associated with new gas capacity, and concludes with recommendations for policymakers.
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