Empirical analysis of hydrogen investments on market value.
Authors
Sigmund, Petr ; Teixeira Magalhaes, Bruno Miguel
Term
4. semester
Publication year
2023
Submitted on
2023-05-28
Pages
54
Abstract
Denne afhandling undersøger, om faktiske investeringer i hydrogenteknologi påvirker børsnoterede energiselskabers markedsværdi. Med udgangspunkt i den grønne omstilling og Paris-aftalen som en central begivenhed anvendes paneldata for amerikanske energivirksomheder fra 2010 til 2021. Virksomheder med dokumenterede hydrogenprojekter udgør behandlingsgruppen, mens lignende virksomheder uden sådanne initiativer fungerer som kontrolgruppe. Analysen anvender en difference-in-differences tilgang med random effects og omfatter model- og diagnostiske tests samt robusthedstjek, herunder alternative afhængige mål (ROIC og fri pengestrømsmargin), kontrol for markedsudviklingen (bl.a. S&P 500) og vurdering af størrelsesbias. Resultaterne indikerer, at hydrogenrelaterede investeringer er forbundet med et fald i markedsværdi efter 2016 sammenlignet med peers uden tilsvarende projekter, og at mere innovative, teknologisk kapable virksomheder kan opleve en stærkere negativ effekt. Fundene peger på vigtige implikationer for værdiansættelse og investeringsbeslutninger i energisektoren, under forudsætning af modellens antagelser og den afgrænsede kontekst.
This thesis examines whether concrete investments in hydrogen technology affect the market value of publicly listed energy firms. Framed by the green transition and using the Paris Agreement as a key event, the study analyzes panel data for U.S. energy companies from 2010 to 2021. Firms with documented hydrogen projects form the treatment group, while comparable firms without such initiatives serve as controls. The analysis applies a random-effects difference-in-differences approach, supported by model selection and diagnostic tests and robustness checks, including alternative outcome measures (ROIC and free cash flow margin), controls for overall market conditions (e.g., the S&P 500), and assessments of size bias. The results indicate that hydrogen-related investments are associated with a decline in market value after 2016 relative to peers without similar projects, and that more innovative, technologically capable firms may experience a stronger negative effect. These findings have implications for valuation and investment decisions in the energy sector, subject to the model’s assumptions and the study’s context.
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