Electricity price forecasting and market dynamics
Author
Bjørn, Christian
Term
4. Term
Publication year
2017
Submitted on
2017-06-02
Abstract
This thesis examines how electricity prices may evolve toward 2030 in the context of market liberalization, rising shares of renewable energy, and the electricity market’s role as a key policy instrument. It focuses on dynamics in the Nordic wholesale market, where supply and demand clear at a single price, bids often reflect short-run marginal costs, and the merit order effect pushes prices down as low‑marginal‑cost renewables are integrated. To assess future price levels, a model was constructed to forecast prices based on technical configurations of the 2030 power system and applied to two scenarios: a reference scenario developed by the DEA and the IDA 2030 scenario with higher renewable capacity. The resulting average electricity prices were 249 kr/MWh and 112 kr/MWh, respectively—well below commonly cited forecasts of 400–500 kr/MWh and too low for most generators to be feasible. These findings indicate that the current market design provides weak investment signals; if policy aims to steer energy system development, market reforms will be needed to support required investments.
Denne afhandling undersøger, hvordan elpriser kan udvikle sig frem mod 2030 i lyset af markedsliberalisering, stigende andele af vedvarende energi og elmarkedets centrale rolle som politisk styringsværktøj. Udgangspunktet er dynamikkerne i det nordiske engrosmarked, hvor udbud og efterspørgsel afregnes til en enhedspris, bud ofte afspejler kortsigtede marginalomkostninger, og merit order-effekten presser priserne ned, når vedvarende energi med lave marginalomkostninger integreres. For at belyse fremtidige prisniveauer er der konstrueret en model, som fremskriver priser på basis af tekniske elsystemkonfigurationer i 2030, anvendt på to scenarier: et referencescenarie udarbejdet af DEA og IDA 2030-scenariet med større VE-kapacitet. De beregnede gennemsnitlige elpriser blev henholdsvis 249 kr/MWh og 112 kr/MWh, hvilket ligger markant under de ofte anførte prognoser på 400–500 kr/MWh og antages at være for lavt til, at de fleste produktionsenheder er rentable. Resultaterne peger på, at det nuværende markedsdesign giver svage investeringssignaler; hvis politisk styring af energisystemets udvikling ønskes, må markedets indretning ændres for at understøtte nødvendige investeringer.
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