East Asian Growth
Author
Nielsen, Kevin Kaczmarczyk
Term
4. term
Publication year
2021
Submitted on
2021-06-04
Pages
37
Abstract
This thesis examines whether commercial proximity to the United States helped shape the divergent growth paths of East Asian economies in the latter half of the twentieth century. The study combines a macroeconometric test with a sector- and supply-chain perspective. First, an OLS panel regression inspired by convergence growth theory (Verspagen) is estimated for East Asian countries over 1972-1990, relating countries’ catch-up to the US to bilateral trade with the US (exports and imports) and gross capital formation. Second, drawing on research on global value chains, supplier selection, total cost of ownership, and the "smiling curve," the thesis analyzes the evolution of the electronics industry and foreign investment across economies such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Taiwan, using changes in trade composition to trace upgrading and integration with US-centered networks. The empirical data are sourced mainly from the IMF, the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, and the WTO, with the noted limitation of missing WDI series for Taiwan. Together, these approaches aim to clarify whether and how ties to the US market and firms contributed to growth disparities within East Asia. The results and policy implications are presented in later chapters and are not included in this excerpt.
Dette speciale undersøger, om kommerciel nærhed til USA har bidraget til de forskellige vækstforløb i de østasatiske økonomier i anden halvdel af det 20. århundrede. Analysen kombinerer en makroøkonometrisk test med et sektorfokus på forsyningskæder. For det første estimeres en OLS-panelregression inspireret af konvergensvækstteori (Verspagen) for østasatiske lande i perioden 1972-1990, hvor landenes indhentning i forhold til USA relateres til bilateralt samhandel med USA (eksport og import) samt bruttokapitaldannelse. For det andet anvendes teori om globale værdikæder, leverandørvalg, total cost of ownership og den såkaldte "smilekurve" til at belyse elektroniksektorens udvikling og udenlandske investeringer i lande som Singapore, Malaysia og Taiwan, blandt andet via ændringer i handelssammensætningen. Data stammer primært fra IMF, Verdensbankens World Development Indicators og WTO; en begrænsning er manglende WDI-statistik for Taiwan. Samlet søger afhandlingen at afklare, om og hvordan bånd til det amerikanske marked og virksomheder har påvirket vækstforskelle i Østasien. Resultater og implikationer præsenteres senere i afhandlingen og indgår ikke i dette uddrag.
[This apstract has been generated with the help of AI directly from the project full text]