Dragon and Eagle Entangled: the U.S.- China Trade War --An Analysis of the Root Causes of the U.S.-China Trade War from a Neoclassical Realistic Perspective: An Analysis of the Root Causes of the U.S.-China Trade War from a Neoclassical Realistic Perspective
Translated title
Dragon and Eagle Entangled: the U.S.- China Trade War --An Analysis of the Root Causes of the U.S.-China Trade War from a Neoclassical Realistic Perspective
Author
Gao, Yawen
Term
2. Term (Master)
Education
Publication year
2019
Submitted on
2019-05-15
Pages
65
Abstract
This thesis examines why the United States chose to launch a trade war against China by applying neoclassical realism to link international structural pressures with domestic politics and leadership. Using a deductive, qualitative analysis of primary and secondary sources, including U.S. policy documents and speeches, it argues that the trade war reflects a broader strategic shift as U.S. decision-makers interpreted China’s rising economic, political and military capabilities as threats to America’s dominant position within a relatively permissive and clearly signaled international environment. The study identifies three systemic drivers (economic, political and military challenges posed by China) and three domestic drivers (a long-term shift from engagement to containment, short-term electoral and interest-group pressures around 2018–2020, and the incumbent president’s assertive, populist and protectionist leadership style). In this view, tariffs and other coercive trade measures are not isolated economic tools but part of a multilevel foreign-policy response to a perceived power shift.
Dette speciale undersøger, hvorfor USA valgte at indlede en handelskrig mod Kina, ved at anvende neoklassisk realisme til at forbinde internationale strukturelle impulser med indenrigspolitiske faktorer og lederes rolle. Gennem en deduktiv, kvalitativ analyse af primære og sekundære kilder, herunder officielle amerikanske strategidokumenter og taler, argumenterer specialet for, at handelskrigen afspejler et bredere strategisk skifte, hvor amerikanske beslutningstagere opfattede Kinas voksende økonomiske, politiske og militære kapaciteter som en trussel mod USA’s dominerende position under et relativt permissivt og klart internationalt system. Analysen identificerer tre systemiske drivkræfter (økonomiske, politiske og militære udfordringer fra Kina) og tre indenlandske drivkræfter (et langsigtet skifte fra engagement til inddæmning, kortsigtede valg- og interessegruppepres omkring 2018–2020 samt den siddende præsidents assertive, populistiske og protektionistiske ledelsesstil). I denne optik er toldsatser og andre handelsredskaber ikke isolerede økonomiske tiltag, men elementer i en flerstrenget udenrigspolitisk respons på et opfattet magtskifte.
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