Does Europe's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine reflect balancing or bandwagoning behaviour, and what does this tell us about the limits of realist alliance theory?
Author
Castelao, Jaime Lago
Term
4. semester
Education
Publication year
2026
Submitted on
2026-04-15
Pages
56
Abstract
This thesis investigates whether Europe’s response to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine is better understood as balancing or bandwagoning, and what this reveals about the limits of realist alliance theory. Using a qualitative single-case design and theory-guided qualitative document analysis, it examines NATO and EU institutional outputs alongside secondary scholarship to assess whether Europe pursued autonomous security provision, deeper Atlantic dependence, or a more complex pattern. The analysis finds that under acute threat European actors primarily relied on NATO as the indispensable framework for deterrence, collective defence, and military credibility, while the European Union expanded its security role through sanctions, military assistance, training, defence-industrial measures, and broader strategic coordination. Yet this EU activism did not amount to full strategic autonomy or a transfer of military primacy away from NATO. The thesis concludes that Europe’s post-2022 behaviour is a hybrid leaning toward bandwagoning and exposes the limits of a rigid balancing/bandwagoning dichotomy: realist alliance theory captures the hierarchy of hard security in Europe but only partially reflects the institutional complexity of today’s European security order.
Denne afhandling undersøger, om Europas svar på Ruslands fuldskalainvasion af Ukraine i 2022 bedst forstås som balancing eller bandwagoning, og hvad det siger om grænserne for realistisk allianceteori. Med et kvalitativt single-case design og teoriunderstøttet kvalitativ dokumentanalyse vurderes NATO- og EU‑institutionelle materialer samt sekundær litteratur for at afklare, om Europa søgte autonom sikkerhedsleverance, styrket atlantisk afhængighed eller et mere sammensat mønster. Analysen viser, at europæiske aktører under akut trussel primært støttede sig til NATO som den uundværlige ramme for afskrækkelse, kollektivt forsvar og militær troværdighed, mens EU samtidig udvidede sin sikkerhedsrolle gennem sanktioner, militær bistand, træning, forsvarsindustrielle tiltag og strategisk koordinering. Denne EU‑aktivisme medførte dog hverken fuld strategisk autonomi eller et skifte af den militære førerposition væk fra NATO. Afhandlingen konkluderer, at Europas adfærd efter 2022 er et hybridt mønster, der læner sig mod bandwagoning, og som samtidig blotlægger begrænsningerne ved en rigid balance/bandwagoning‑dikotomi: realistisk allianceteori forklarer hierarkiet i hård sikkerhed i Europa, men indfanger kun delvist den institutionelle kompleksitet i den nutidige europæiske sikkerhedsorden.
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